Investing successfully is about both picking winners and avoiding bad losers. It's been a tough few weeks for many - even Warren Buffett lost $US1.4bn in one day this week, with bank Wells Fargo. However, we have been negative a number of stocks / sectors, which have fallen aggressively over recent weeks. Hence, we felt revisiting 3 of these stocks to assess whether remaining bearish at current levels would give a strong indication as to whether the overall market is likely to fall further medium-term.
Sydney Airports (SYD)
We have been negative quasi-bond like stocks that investors have flocked to over recent times, in the hunt for yield with interest rates falling to historic low levels. Sydney Airports (SYD) fits this description, perfectly being considered by investors as a stable dividend paying stock - current yield 4.3% unfranked. However, the stock has tripled since 2011, as investors became very comfortable with the style of investment - it feels very similar to the complacency with the banks in 2015.
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Telstra (TLS) has been the big go-to for many retail investors over recent years, but the stock has been a huge value trap. The business is simply performing poorly on most levels – with earnings being artificially inflated by one-off NBN payments. Although the BIG one off payments seem impressive, it will come down to Telstra’s ability to reinvest those payments, given they lose $2bn-$3bn of re-occurring earnings over the next 3-3.5 years. The dividend is clearly still attractive with the stock yielding 6.11% fully franked – however, dividends are useless if capital is being eroded.
The threat of higher interest rates is traditionally bad news for the REIT's sector and while our belief has been that this is on the horizon, the market has suddenly become fixated on it over the last week. Westfield Group (WFD) is a major player in the REIT space and it generated major sell signals, which we flagged in a number of reports back in July.
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