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Morning report

Macro Monday: Here come the RBA & Mid-terms, as if it wasn’t volatile enough!

The US Tech Sector came under further pressure last week with aggressive pullbacks from the likes of Intel (-24%), Google (-13%), Palantir (-6%), Netflix (-6%), and Meta (-3%) weighing on the indices and general market sentiment. The issue last week wasn’t bond yields, but the latest earnings season exposing the growing cash-flow cost of the AI boom.
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Anthropic’s IPO reinvigorates the “AI Trade”

For the second consecutive day, the ASX 200 recovered from early losses to close higher, this time a more impressive +0.5%. Gains were concentrated in the miners, with the materials sector adding 58 points to the index, while financials dragged by 18 points. If the two could just move in the same direction, we’d be trading above 9,000 in the blink of an eye! The miners, and in particular copper names, enjoyed two strong tailwinds on Tuesday.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Evaluating 4 big ASX movers

The ASX 200 reversed from early steep losses to close up +0.2% on Monday, with a +1.7% bounce by the materials sector adding +35 points to the index, more than offsetting weakness in the financials.
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Morning report

Macro Monday: Should we be reweighting our portfolios in earnest?

Relative sector performance is very often cyclical, depending on different factors such as bond yields and global economic growth. It may not feel like it, but the ASX 200 Financials and Materials sectors have delivered comparable gains since COVID, rising ~60% and ~50%, respectively, but they’ve followed very different paths.
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Morning report

Fund Friday: Three portfolio themes that could have turned

The ASX 200 recovered almost half of its early morning losses, but it still finished the day down 0.4% in a very polarised session. The damage on the index level was again inflicted by miners, with BHP on its own accounting for more than 60% of the index's decline. Fortunately, the banks and broader market were again supportive, with the number of winners just managing to edge the losers despite the main board's decline.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: The digital marketplace stocks are fighting back

The ASX 200 experienced a choppy Wednesday before rallying into the close, finishing the day up +0.2% - not a bad performance, with BHP Group (-1.6%) and NEXTDC (-42%) combining to take almost 26 points off the index. Fortunately, the banks provided a rare bright spot, with Morgan Stanley estimating that NAB’s planned cull of 2,500 roles could deliver annual cost savings of $400–500 million.
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Is the AI investment boom hitting a speed hump?

The ASX staged a valiant recovery on Tuesday, clawing back much of its early losses to finish down just 0.3%, despite fewer than 40% of the main board managing to post gains. A soft quarterly update from BHP, and a subsequent -1.6% drop by the Big Australian, contributed 55% of the index's decline on its own, with the more defensive consumer staples and healthcare names stemming the losses.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Can China’s improved growth turn the dial?

The ASX 200 ground out a +0.4% gain to start the week, but it wasn’t all plain sailing, with over 50% of the main board closing on the wrong side of the ledger. A +1% average gain by the “Big Four Banks” contributed most to the day's advance, while the miners had a mixed session, with BHP Group (BHP) gaining +0.7% helped by the pick-up in China's growth, which we will look at today, while South32 (S32) -2.6% and PLS Group (PLS) -2.7% were drags on the index. However, Monday was all about takeover fever, a subject MM has written about a few times in 2026.
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MM remains bullish towards the ASX200 around 8900
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We aren’t expecting much impact to stocks from the mid terms
NDQ
MM remains bullish towards the NASDAQ around 28,000 into Christmas
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MM believes the RBA Cash Rate will peak this month
VGB
MM remains bullish towards Australian 3-year bonds – yields lower
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OOO
MM is neutral towards December oil around US$117/barrel.
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MM remains cautiously bullish toward gold
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MM remains bullish towards copper and its related miners over the coming years
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USD
MM remains bearish towards the US$ Dollar longer term
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Trade Idea: Buy Global X Copper Miners ETF (WIRE) using a limit of $19.50, with stops at $18.20, around 7% risk.
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Trade Idea: Buy Global X Semiconductor ETF (SEMI) using a limit of $31.40, with stops at $29.40, around 6% risk.
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MM will turn bullish towards the SOX index ~10,000
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Latest Reports

Morning report

What Matters Today: Three sectors where not all boats are rising/sinking as one

Firstly, we have a new data provider now feeding the Market Matters website, with the cut over completed overnight. Further enhancements to come in coming months, which will tie in our expanded data set with some interesting tools to better analysis the market as a whole and improve the navigation around the site.

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Anthropic’s IPO reinvigorates the “AI Trade”

For the second consecutive day, the ASX 200 recovered from early losses to close higher, this time a more impressive +0.5%. Gains were concentrated in the miners, with the materials sector adding 58 points to the index, while financials dragged by 18 points. If the two could just move in the same direction, we’d be trading above 9,000 in the blink of an eye! The miners, and in particular copper names, enjoyed two strong tailwinds on Tuesday.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Evaluating 4 big ASX movers

The ASX 200 reversed from early steep losses to close up +0.2% on Monday, with a +1.7% bounce by the materials sector adding +35 points to the index, more than offsetting weakness in the financials.

Morning report

Macro Monday: Should we be reweighting our portfolios in earnest?

Relative sector performance is very often cyclical, depending on different factors such as bond yields and global economic growth. It may not feel like it, but the ASX 200 Financials and Materials sectors have delivered comparable gains since COVID, rising ~60% and ~50%, respectively, but they’ve followed very different paths.

Morning report

Fund Friday: Three portfolio themes that could have turned

The ASX 200 recovered almost half of its early morning losses, but it still finished the day down 0.4% in a very polarised session. The damage on the index level was again inflicted by miners, with BHP on its own accounting for more than 60% of the index's decline. Fortunately, the banks and broader market were again supportive, with the number of winners just managing to edge the losers despite the main board's decline.

Morning report

What Matters Today: The digital marketplace stocks are fighting back

The ASX 200 experienced a choppy Wednesday before rallying into the close, finishing the day up +0.2% - not a bad performance, with BHP Group (-1.6%) and NEXTDC (-42%) combining to take almost 26 points off the index. Fortunately, the banks provided a rare bright spot, with Morgan Stanley estimating that NAB’s planned cull of 2,500 roles could deliver annual cost savings of $400–500 million.

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Is the AI investment boom hitting a speed hump?

The ASX staged a valiant recovery on Tuesday, clawing back much of its early losses to finish down just 0.3%, despite fewer than 40% of the main board managing to post gains. A soft quarterly update from BHP, and a subsequent -1.6% drop by the Big Australian, contributed 55% of the index's decline on its own, with the more defensive consumer staples and healthcare names stemming the losses.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Can China’s improved growth turn the dial?

The ASX 200 ground out a +0.4% gain to start the week, but it wasn’t all plain sailing, with over 50% of the main board closing on the wrong side of the ledger. A +1% average gain by the “Big Four Banks” contributed most to the day's advance, while the miners had a mixed session, with BHP Group (BHP) gaining +0.7% helped by the pick-up in China's growth, which we will look at today, while South32 (S32) -2.6% and PLS Group (PLS) -2.7% were drags on the index. However, Monday was all about takeover fever, a subject MM has written about a few times in 2026.

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