17 June 19
AGL pulls Vocus bid (BIN, VOC, EHL, PLS)
17 June 19
AGL pulls Vocus bid (BIN, VOC, EHL, PLS)
17 June 19
Subscribers questions (KDR, HLS, VOC, CBA, LNK, BLD, WOR, SGM, TLS, MXT, NBI, BIN, WSA)
16 June 19
Market Matters Weekend Report Sunday 16th June 2019
14 June 19
Why BREXIT is a good thing!
14 June 19
Crude oil is flirting with $US50/barrel can our energy sector defy the weakness? (WPL, STO, BPT)
13 June 19
Markets flat – Challenger downgrades (CGF)
13 June 19
Considering the “second tier” iron ore stocks as the commodity surges (EVN, CGF, AWC, RIO, MGX, MIN, GRR)
12 June 19
The rally fades on bank selling (ANZ, EHL)
12 June 19
Income Note: How do lower rates impact Hybrids?
12 June 19
A mixed overseas & local report after the ASX roars (NST, RRL, BHP, AAPL US, AMZN US, CSCO US, MSFT US, FB US,
Yesterday the local market soared over 100-points to register the markets highest close since late 2007, a combination of buying in both the financials and resources tends to have that impact on our market! So far this month the ASX200 has rallied 231-points from its low, although it feels like more, however Mays equivalent rally was over 300-points so this is nothing out of the recent norm. Also, the average monthly range for our market in 2019 is currently 281-points suggesting that sellers should be patient until the psychological 6600 area, or in other words the current strong rally is actually typical of 2019.
What the shortened week did also throw up was binary like price action that we have witnessed through much of 2019 with yet another takeover announcement for Vocus (VOC) sending the stock up +8.9% while a downgrade for Star Entertainment (SGR) sent the casino operator tumbling well over 15%, that’s huge performance differential.
MM remains confident that low interest rates combined with cashed up fund mangers is the main driver of equities at this point in time but we think its definitely time to be considering what’s either the next hurdle or bullish catalyst for stocks e.g. inflation raises its head taking rate cuts off the table or on the positive side, the US & China resolve their trade issues – as we always say “remain open-minded”.
Under the hood we again saw strength in most sectors with less than 13% of the market closing in the red while 15 names in the ASX200 closed up by 4%, or more. It felt like there were a lot of over the day orders as fund managers were scrambling for somewhere to allocate their cash reserves as the pain of being underinvested during 2019 intensifies for investors i.e. up 900-points and counting.
However we would add that selling into forced buying does generally turn out well in the end hence we are sticking with our overall view to increase cash levels into current strength – after taking a very healthy profit in ResMed (RMD) to kick off the week we are now holding 15% cash in our Platinum Portfolio and under 5% in our Income Portfolio, in other words Market Matters still remains “long” this bull market looking to sell into strength.
Overnight the US indices closed marginally lower after rallying strongly for half the session, the Dow closed 200-points below its intra-day high. The SPI futures are still calling the ASX200 to open up around 15-points this morning courtesy of iron ore which rallied over 3% taking BHP along for the ride, the miner closed up 85c / 2.2% compared to its local close yesterday.
MM believed recent weakness in o/s stocks was a buying opportunity however we are slowly becoming cautious into the current strong rally.
Today we are simply going to look at the best 5 performing stocks in the US searching for any for signs of exhaustion following the Dows almost 1600-point, 7-day rally – short-term after last nights lower close we anticipate at least a few days of consolidation.
As stocks soared higher on Tuesday the only standout area of weakness was the gold sector with Northern Star (NST) and Regis Resources (RRL) both closing down over 4%.
At MM we remain keen buyers of this correction in the precious metal sector e.g. NST under $8, RRL ~$4 and SAR ~$2.50 – all are decent distance lower but when stocks are falling 4-5% a day it doesn’t take long.
Northern Star Resources (NST) Chart
Regis Resources (RRL) Chart
In the last 24-hours iron ore regained its “mojo” with a bang rallying over 3% to make fresh 2019 highs, hence BHP’s surge in the US.
MM remains bullish BHP targeting fresh 2019 highs.
BHP Group (BHP) Chart
The 5 strongest US stocks
Today we have simply evaluated the 5 strongest stocks in the US following the markets excellent recovery over the last week. One things very apparent from the list and it’s this rally is being fuelled by the “big end” of town, the 5 top performers contains Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Microsoft no less.
Our feeling is still that the “cashed up” fund managers need to be squeezed further before the market will become primed for a potential correction i.e. markets don’t fall meaningfully when investors are not very long.
Overall MM remains bullish US stocks targeting the psychological 3000 area, ~4% higher.
US S&P500 Index Chart
1 Apple (AAPL US) $US194.84
Overnight Apple rallied +1.2% and suddenly its regained around half of the recent +20% plunge on fears of deteriorating trade between the US and China. The company’s latest numbers showed they realised US11.58bn profit on $US58bn revenue with services revenue hitting an all-time high although gross margins fell from 38.3% to 37.6% - plus they announced yet another $75bn in share buybacks.
We see deep value in Apple below $US190 with buybacks, large cash balance etc i.e. at this price investors are not paying any premium for growth.
We still acknowledge the current iPhone product cycle is going poorly especially in of course China but the business is looking to allay concerns around life after just selling phones / iPads by increasing its services revenue. Stocks with leverage to China have been sold down aggressively of late but we feel the risk / reward is now attractive with plenty of bad news built into the price.
Technically I can see months of choppy rotation between $US170 & $US210 making the stock neutral at today’s levels.
MM likes Apple below $US190 area.
Apple Inc (AAPL US) Chart
2 Amazon.com (AMZN US) $US183.70.
Overnight Amazon rallied 0.2% as it rapidly shrugs off the rumours around anti-competitive business practices, a classic case of buy the rumour. Recently the on-line retailing goliath produced a huge quarterly profit beat although revenue growth slowed as anticipated.
While we can see Amazon making fresh all-time highs in the coming weeks / months the ”easy money” still appears well behind it. Technically the picture is relatively similar to Apple.
MM is mildly bullish Amazon targeting fresh all-time highs.
Amazon.com (AMZN US) Chart
3 Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO US) $US57.11
This networking giant has made fresh all-time highs this month supported by strong revenue & margins, earnings growth and the usual buybacks. In their 3rd quarter report in May its operating revenue grew by an impressive $US13bn as the company produced another period of double digit earnings growth.
The stocks not too expensive considering its solid proven growth and it reinforces our view that the Australian IT sector is simply too rich on a risk / reward basis compared to its global peers. Technically the stock looks bullish while it can maintain its breakout to fresh all-time highs.
MM is mildly bullish Cisco while it can hold above $US55.
Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO US) Chart
4 Microsoft (MSFT US) $US132.10
Microsoft has also made fresh all-time highs this week to regain its trillion dollar status, very impressive for a business still growing at ~16% pa. While the company is sitting on $50bn in cash and performing healthy stock buybacks we are conscious that the stock has run very hard, not a sell fundamentally but perhaps a dangerous one to chase into strength.
We remain keen buyers into weakness but at this stage of the stock / economic cycle we will be patient for now.
MM likes MSFT as a business but we are neutral around current levels.
Microsoft (MSFT US) Chart
5 Facebook (FB US) $US178.10
Facebook know everything about anybody and they’re using that information to generate advertising dollars. While the power of their platform is undeniable there is almost certainly going to be ongoing concerns around privacy and that remains a worry to us.
Technically we can still see fresh all-time highs by FB but the risk / reward is not too exciting as the stock’s struggled in June compared to the others in today’s group.
MM is neutral / positive Facebook at current levels.
Facebook (FB US) Chart
Of the 5 stocks we looked at today none give us any reason just yet to throw in the towel on the current post GFC bull market.
US stocks finally had a rest after the last weeks strong gains but we still anticipate the market will be higher over the next few weeks.
We still see fresh all-time highs by US stocks in 2019.
US NASDAQ Index Chart
No change with European indices, we remain cautious in this region although we are slowly becoming more optimistic.
German DAX Chart
Overnight Market Matters Wrap
· The US had a breather from its recent run, with its respective indices ending mixed with little change.
· Trade talks between US and China, along with anticipation for a Fed interest rate cut, now being the focus for investors.
· Crude oil fell, off 0.39% to US$53.05/bbl. however we expect the resources to outperform the broader market, with BHP ending its US session up an equivalent of 2.11% from Australia’s previous close to $39.54.
· The June SPI Futures is indicating the ASX 200 to continue to make fresh 12-year highs and open 15 points higher, towards the 6560 level this morning.
Have a great day!
James & the Market Matters Team
Market Matters may hold stocks mentioned in this report. Subscribers can view a full list of holdings on the website by clicking here. Positions are updated each Friday, or after the session when positions are traded.
All figures contained from sources believed to be accurate. Market Matters does not make any representation of warranty as to the accuracy of the figures and disclaims any liability resulting from any inaccuracy. Prices as at 12/06/2019
Reports and other documents published on this website and email (‘Reports’) are authored by Market Matters and the reports represent the views of Market Matters. The MarketMatters Report is based on technical analysis of companies, commodities and the market in general. Technical analysis focuses on interpreting charts and other data to determine what the market sentiment about a particular financial product is, or will be. Unlike fundamental analysis, it does not involve a detailed review of the company’s financial position.
The Reports contain general, as opposed to personal, advice. That means they are prepared for multiple distributions without consideration of your investment objectives, financial situation and needs (‘Personal Circumstances’). Accordingly, any advice given is not a recommendation that a particular course of action is suitable for you and the advice is therefore not to be acted on as investment advice. You must assess whether or not any advice is appropriate for your Personal Circumstances before making any investment decisions. You can either make this assessment yourself, or if you require a personal recommendation, you can seek the assistance of a financial advisor. Market Matters or its author(s) accepts no responsibility for any losses or damages resulting from decisions made from or because of information within this publication. Investing and trading in financial products are always risky, so you should do your own research before buying or selling a financial product.
The Reports are published by Market Matters in good faith based on the facts known to it at the time of their preparation and do not purport to contain all relevant information with respect to the financial products to which they relate. Although the Reports are based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, Market Matters does not make any representation or warranty that they are accurate, complete or up to date and Market Matters accepts no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in the Reports. Market Matters may publish content sourced from external content providers.
If you rely on a Report, you do so at your own risk. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Any projections are estimates only and may not be realised in the future. Except to the extent that liability under any law cannot be excluded, Market Matters disclaims liability for all loss or damage arising as a result of any opinion, advice, recommendation, representation or information expressly or impliedly published in or in relation to this report not withstanding any error or omission including negligence.
Financial Services Guide
Date prepared: Wednesday, 22 November 2017
Last update: Friday, 23rd April 2019
About this Financial Services Guide (FSG)
This FSG provides you with key information about a range of subscription services offered by:
Marketmatters Pty Ltd (Market Matters) Australian Financial Services Licence No. 488798 ABN (20 137 462 536)
Level 29, Chifley Tower, 2 Chifley Square Sydney 2000
T: 1300 301 868
E: [email protected]
In this FSG, “we”, us” and “our” refer to Market Matters.
Market Matters holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 488798 (AFSL) and is responsible for any financial services that we provide to you.
This AFSL was issued on 8th September 2016.
The purpose of this FSG is to provide you with information about:
Market Matters operates a website, www.marketmatters.com.au (Website), where customers may, for the payment of a subscription fee, access certain financial information and general advice. In particular, the Website provides:
This FSG relates only to the Website Services.
What financial services we can offer in connection with the Website Services
As holder of AFSL number 488798, in connection with the Website Services we are authorised to provide general financial product advice to both retail and wholesale clients in relation to the following financial products:
The Website Services are comprised of general advice only. That is, none of the advice given on the Website or by provision of the Website Services takes into account any of your objectives, financial situation or needs (Your Personal Circumstances). Before acting on any of the information, advice or Website Services, you must consider the appropriateness of this information in light of Your Personal Circumstances and, if necessary, consult a financial adviser before making any investment decision.
If you are seeking to acquire a specific financial product or security, you should obtain a copy of and consider the Product Disclosure Statement or Prospectus for that product before making any investment decision.
The Website does not provide a trading platform or access to a trading platform. There is no ability to purchase or sell financial products through the Website.
How do I access these services?
You can access these services by going to www.marketmatters.com.au and following the prompts and steps required to sign up for membership. Please read all terms and conditions carefully.
Fees and benefits payable to us and our associates
The Website is a subscription-based service. A yearly fixed subscription fee is payable to Market Matters when you subscribe to the Website which will vary depending on the type of subscription for which you subscribe. At the date of this FSG, the yearly subscription fees are as follows:
Platinum: $1,238 for 12 months
Platinum: $1,993 for 24 months
Subscription fees vary from time to time and are provided on the Website.
The Website does not currently feature third party advertising. Market Matters reserve the right to advertise at a future time for which they may receive remuneration. Any such advertising will be independent of any other content on the Website.
All representatives of Market Matters (Market Matters Staff) receive a salary paid by Market Matters. Market Matters Staff may also receive performance-based bonuses which are based on profitability, the number of subscribers and subscription renewal rates.
How do we manage potential conflicts of interest?
Market Matters have implemented policies and procedures to mitigate the risk of conflicts of interest. These include:
Market Matters Staff and Contributors are encouraged to express independent views and opinions on the topics they write about. This is established through ongoing training, external audits and our conflict of interest and staff trading policies. Market Matters Staff are required to serve the best interests of the subscribers, without consideration of any commercial or personal interests.
How is my personal information dealt with?
If you have a complaint about our services, you should take the following steps:
Contact us and discuss the complaint directly. If you do not feel comfortable discussing the complaint with us or your complaint is not satisfactorily resolved within 2 business days, please telephone Market Matters, on 1300 301 868 and ask to speak with the Complaints Officer. We suggest you put your complaint in writing at this time so that the issues are fully documented and understood by the parties. Your complaint should be addressed to:
The Complaints Officer
Level 29, Chifley Tower,
2 Chifley Square Sydney NSW 2000
Market Matters will review your complaint within 45 days and attempt resolution. If you are still not satisfied with the outcome, you may take your complaint to an external dispute resolution scheme. Market Matters is a member of the scheme operated by the Financial Ombudsman Service. You should write to:Australian Financial Complaints Authority Limited (AFCA)
You may also wish to consult ASIC in relation to your complaint. ASIC’s website contains information on complaining about companies and people and describes the types of complaints handled by ASIC. You can contact ASIC on its free call infoline:
Tel: 1300 300 630 or email [email protected]
We maintain professional indemnity insurance to cover our employees and Authorised Representatives (including us) for the financial services they provide, having regard to the following:
If you require further information about these compensation arrangements please contact us.
Terms and Conditions
This website, www.marketmatters.com.au, is published by Marketmatters Pty Limited (ABN 20 137 462 536) ('Market Matters', 'MM', 'us', 'we', 'our') Australian Financial Services Licence 488798
Financial Services Guide
Market Matters Financial Services Guide (FSG) is located here, and contains important information about the financial services provided by Market Matters. You must read our FSG and consider it in the context of your Personal Circumstances before acting on any advice. By accepting the terms and conditions you are acknowledging that you have read the FSG.
Provision of the Reports
Reports and other documents published on the Market Matter’s website (‘Reports’) are authored by Market Matters. The Reports represent the views of Market Matters based on technical analysis of companies, commodities and the market in general. Technical analysis focuses on interpreting charts and other data to determine what the market sentiment about a particular financial product is, or will be. Unlike fundamental analysis, it does not involve a detailed review of the company’s financial position.
The Reports contain general, as opposed to personal advice. That means they are prepared for multiple distribution without consideration of your investment objectives, financial situation and needs (‘Personal Circumstances’). Accordingly, any advice given is not a recommendation that a particular course of action is suitable for you and the advice is therefore not to be acted on as investment advice. You must assess whether or not any advice is appropriate for your Personal Circumstances before making any investment decisions. You can either make this assessment yourself, or if you require a personal recommendation, you can seek the assistance of a financial advisor.
The Reports are published by Market Matters in good faith based on the facts known to it at the time of their preparation and do not purport to contain all relevant information with respect to the financial products to which they relate. Although the Reports are based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, Market Matters does not make any representation or warranty that they are accurate, complete or up to date and Market Matters accepts no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in the Reports.
If you rely on a Report, you do so at your own risk. Any projections are estimates only and may not be realised in the future. Except to the extent that liability under any law cannot be excluded, Market Matters disclaims liability for all loss or damage arising as a result of any opinion, advice, recommendation, representation or information expressly or impliedly published in or in relation to this report notwithstanding any error or omission including negligence.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Brokerage costs have not been included in the calculation of performance. As financial products rise and fall in value, returns may be negative. Performance figures are not intended to be a forecast. Market Matters does not guarantee the performance of or returns on any investment.
Employees and/or associates of Market Matters may hold one or more of the stocks reviewed on this website. Employees and/or associates of Market Matters may hold one or more of the stocks reviewed on this website.
Subscriptions and Subscription Prices
To access premium content available on the Market Matters website you must subscribe to one or more membership categories available on the website.
To subscribe to the Market Matters website you must go to the Memberships page of the website, provide the information marked as ‘Mandatory’ and select the payment option for the price quoted (at the time of your transaction). You will then receive a verification email from Market Matters indicating that your subscription and payment have been accepted and you will be able to access the premium content.
Prices published on the Market Matters website are quoted in Australian Dollars (AUD) and are inclusive of GST and/or all other duties and taxes. Market Matters has used reasonable endeavours to ensure that prices for subscription to its services are published accurately on the website but these prices are subject to change and Market Matters reserves the right to change these prices and will notify you of any increase by email (with the price increase to apply from the time the next payment is due).
Marketmatters Pty Ltd (ABN 20 137 462 536) will issue a tax invoice to paying subscribers in relation to any supply that is subject to GST in accordance with A New Tax System (Goods and Services Tax) Act 1999.
Any member is entitled to cancel their membership at any time. In the event a member does wish to cancel their subscription, cancellations must be notified in writing to:
Level 29, Chifley Tower, 2 Chifley Square, Sydney NSW 2000
or by email to: [email protected]
All cancellations of month-by-month subscriptions will be cancelled and not billed again the next month.
All cancellations within 14 days we be entitled to a full refund. Any introductory gifts, such as, but not limited to; iPads, Fitbit watches, Apple watches, Google Homes, must be returned in their original condition before a refund will be made.
All cancellations made after 14 days of subscription commencement will not be entitled to a refund unless in the event of extenuating circumstances, at the sole discretion of Market Matters.
Subscriptions will automatically renew on the expiry date of current subscription. In these instances the subscription will be renewed at the current rate published on the Market Matters web site, using the same credit card that paid for the initial subscription, unless otherwise requested by the subscriber. A subscriber who wishes to cancel after being renewed in this way will have a “14 day cooling off period” in which they can request to discontinue and will receive a full refund for the renewal payment, this can be done in writing to:
Level 29, Chifley Tower, 2 Chifely Square Sydney 2000
or by email to: [email protected]
Market Matters has not reviewed any of the websites which link to this website or to which this website links. Market Matters is not responsible for the content of any other website or pages linked to or linking to its website. Following links to any other websites or pages shall be at the user’s own risk.
Copyright © 2018 Marketmatters Pty Ltd (ABN 20 137 462 536). No part of this website, or its content, may be reproduced in any form without the prior consent of Market Matters.
This Agreement is governed by and is to be construed in accordance with the laws of New South Wales, Australia. You agree to the non-exclusive jurisdiction of the courts of New South Wales, Australia in respect of any proceedings concerning this Agreement. This website is not available to US and/or EU persons and by accepting these terms you confirm that you are not a US and/or EU person.