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Morning report

ETF Friday: Four ASX ETFs that could shine if the RBA doesn’t hike again in 2026

The ASX200’s roller coaster ride through May continued on Thursday with a strong +1.5% bounce as hopes increased that a deal to resolve the conflict in the Middle East was approaching. Unfortunately, we’ve heard it all before. Let's hope it will eventually come to fruition, but in the meantime, 3-weeks into May and triple-digit moves have become commonplace, even though the index is down just 0.5% for the month.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Four ASX200 Stocks Down 40% Are Starting to Look Interesting

The ASX 200 fell 1.3% on Wednesday, closing at a seven-week low as inflation concerns weighed on bonds and equities across Asia. Selling was broad-based on the local bourse, with more than 80% of the main board stocks retreating, led by the previously high-flying Materials Sector (-2.1%), which suffered as rising bond yields pushed the likes of gold and copper lower - rising yields slow economic activity and provide a higher “risk-free” return from bonds or cash, compared to the likes of gold which pays no income. Weakness throughout the day was met with very little buying interest. To put the lack of “risk” appetite into perspective, only one stock rose more than 5%, while twelve fell by the same magnitude.
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Equity markets steady ahead of Nvidia’s (NYSE: NVDA) earnings

The ASX enjoyed a strong session on Tuesday, rallying +1.2% with exactly 75% of the main board finishing in positive territory. Consumer staples led the charge, with the major supermarkets bouncing strongly—Woolworths (ASX: WOW) gained +3.7%, while Metcash (ASX: MTS) and Coles Group (ASX: COL) both climbed +2.7%. However, from an index perspective, the rebound in the “Big Four Banks” did most of the heavy lifting, with CBA, Westpac and NAB accounting for more than a quarter of the ASX200’s gain, although insurers again outperformed on a percentage basis.
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Morning report

Macro Monday: Unsettled bond markets are starting to weigh on equities

Despite Friday’s pullback, US equities still enjoyed their 7th consecutive week of gains, although the rally has become increasingly concentrated on the stock and sector level. Eight of the 11 S&P 500 sectors have fallen so far this month, with most of the upside concentrated in “Big Tech” – just four stocks are responsible for more than half of the S&P 500’s gains this year. Even as key equity sectors wobbled and yields advanced, financial markets stayed firm into Thursday, helped by strong corporate earnings.
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Morning report

ETF Friday: Four ASX ETFs the Budget has brought into Focus

The ASX200 continued to feel soggy on Thursday, although it did ultimately reverse earlier losses into the close, ending the session up +0.1%, even though ~55% of the main board retreated. A bounce by the banks, led by Commonwealth Bank (ASX: CBA), combined with another positive session by BHP Group (ASX: BHP), was enough to see the main board eke out a small gain, with the index again attracting buyers around the 8600 level, albeit in a very selective manner.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Is Copper the New Oil — And Australia’s Lucky Break?

The ASX 200 delivered another disappointing performance on Monday falling 0.5%, failing to embrace another record breaking session by US equities on Friday night. The day was dominated by another painful downgrade by CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) which saw the biotech hit 16%, its largest ever 1-day fall, contributing over 70% of the days decline - such was its dramatic fall that it overtook talk of tonight’s budget on many trading desks.
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Morning report

Macro Monday: Earnings, not social media posts, ultimately drive stocks

Outside of the post-COVID rebound, corporate America has just delivered one of its strongest earnings seasons in more than a decade. Approximately 85% of S&P 500 companies beat expectations, with the Magnificent Seven posting profit growth well in excess of 50%, providing the engine room for the broader rally.
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MM remains bullish towards the ASX200, around 8625
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MM is bullish towards the Dow around 50,000
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MM is long & bullish SPOT US ~$US490
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VGB
MM is cautiously bullish toward the Australian 10-year – yields, lower from 5%.
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MVA
MM is long and bullish towards the MVA ETF around $23
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QFN
MM is cautiously bullish towards the QFN ETF around $17.50
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MM is cautiously bullish towards the EX20 ETF around $21.50
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IAF
MM is long and bullish on the IAF ETF from the $101 level
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Latest Reports

Morning report

What Matters Today: Four ASX200 Stocks Down 40% Are Starting to Look Interesting

The ASX 200 fell 1.3% on Wednesday, closing at a seven-week low as inflation concerns weighed on bonds and equities across Asia. Selling was broad-based on the local bourse, with more than 80% of the main board stocks retreating, led by the previously high-flying Materials Sector (-2.1%), which suffered as rising bond yields pushed the likes of gold and copper lower - rising yields slow economic activity and provide a higher “risk-free” return from bonds or cash, compared to the likes of gold which pays no income. Weakness throughout the day was met with very little buying interest. To put the lack of “risk” appetite into perspective, only one stock rose more than 5%, while twelve fell by the same magnitude.

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Equity markets steady ahead of Nvidia’s (NYSE: NVDA) earnings

The ASX enjoyed a strong session on Tuesday, rallying +1.2% with exactly 75% of the main board finishing in positive territory. Consumer staples led the charge, with the major supermarkets bouncing strongly—Woolworths (ASX: WOW) gained +3.7%, while Metcash (ASX: MTS) and Coles Group (ASX: COL) both climbed +2.7%. However, from an index perspective, the rebound in the “Big Four Banks” did most of the heavy lifting, with CBA, Westpac and NAB accounting for more than a quarter of the ASX200’s gain, although insurers again outperformed on a percentage basis.

Morning report

Macro Monday: Unsettled bond markets are starting to weigh on equities

Despite Friday’s pullback, US equities still enjoyed their 7th consecutive week of gains, although the rally has become increasingly concentrated on the stock and sector level. Eight of the 11 S&P 500 sectors have fallen so far this month, with most of the upside concentrated in “Big Tech” – just four stocks are responsible for more than half of the S&P 500’s gains this year. Even as key equity sectors wobbled and yields advanced, financial markets stayed firm into Thursday, helped by strong corporate earnings.

Morning report

ETF Friday: Four ASX ETFs the Budget has brought into Focus

The ASX200 continued to feel soggy on Thursday, although it did ultimately reverse earlier losses into the close, ending the session up +0.1%, even though ~55% of the main board retreated. A bounce by the banks, led by Commonwealth Bank (ASX: CBA), combined with another positive session by BHP Group (ASX: BHP), was enough to see the main board eke out a small gain, with the index again attracting buyers around the 8600 level, albeit in a very selective manner.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Is Copper the New Oil — And Australia’s Lucky Break?

The ASX 200 delivered another disappointing performance on Monday falling 0.5%, failing to embrace another record breaking session by US equities on Friday night. The day was dominated by another painful downgrade by CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) which saw the biotech hit 16%, its largest ever 1-day fall, contributing over 70% of the days decline - such was its dramatic fall that it overtook talk of tonight’s budget on many trading desks.

Morning report

Macro Monday: Earnings, not social media posts, ultimately drive stocks

Outside of the post-COVID rebound, corporate America has just delivered one of its strongest earnings seasons in more than a decade. Approximately 85% of S&P 500 companies beat expectations, with the Magnificent Seven posting profit growth well in excess of 50%, providing the engine room for the broader rally.

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