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Morning report

What Matters Today: Can coal stocks extend August’s strength?

The ASX 200 recovered impressively from an early sell-off to finish the final session of August down just -0.2%, a better outcome than we expected, with the Big Four banks adding around 30 points to the index. Interestingly, while resources retreated following Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish comments on Friday and renewed tensions between the US and Iran, there was little evidence of broad-based selling.
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Morning report

ETF Friday: Has NVIDIA just reignited tech ETFs?

The ASX 200 was clobbered on Thursday, as a trifecta of bad news overshadowed another impressive result from Nvidia. Selling was broad-based, with more than 75% of the main board leading the market's worst day since June. Globally, it was a session that favoured semiconductors over miners, an unfortunate combination for the local market given the ASX is heavily exposed to the latter and has virtually none of the former:
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Sticky inflation, opportunity or worry?

The ASX 200 surrendered early gains on Wednesday after inflation data came in far stronger than expected, weighing heavily on overall sentiment and specifically the rate-sensitive names. Just to compound the market’s woes, yesterday's reporting wasn’t kind, with major disappointments from Worley (-10.8%), WiseTech (-10.1%), and Flight Centre (-7.4%) offsetting further strength in gold and copper names.
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Copper stocks set for another big session

The ASX 200 enjoyed a more broad-based advance on Tuesday, with 70% of the main board closing higher, pushing the index up +0.7%. The banks finally gave the index a helping hand, but they still couldn’t figure in the top 3 stocks contributing to the market's 62-point advance; the podium was headed by BHP, again (+9 points), followed by CSL (+7-points), and Suncorp (+5-points). Elsewhere, we saw some profit-taking creep into the high-flying gold sector while the tech stocks more than picked up the slack, taking their cue from a reversal higher by the semiconductor-driven Korean KOSPI Index.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Has Kazatomprom just reignited the Uranium Trade?

The ASX 200 rallied +0.5% on Monday to close just above the psychological 9100 level, but it wasn't all plain sailing with less than 55% of the main board closing higher. The story remained consistent on the sector front, with the gains by the materials (+61 points) minus the financials (-21 points) almost exactly equalling the day's +44-point net advance. The miners remain the driving force of the ASX, and the reason we’ve recently been outperforming the US, especially since the Treasury pledged support to try and rein in long-dated US bond yields. BHP Group (BHP) grabbed the headlines on Monday, posting new all-time highs, but there were plenty of standout performances amongst the big miners.
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Morning report

Macro Monday: Washington “needs” cheaper money & it’s great for our miners!

Last week saw Scott Bessent emerge as one of the most interventionist Treasury secretaries in financial markets in decades, putting his and the Treasury's credibility on the line in an effort to combat the damaging rise in US borrowing costs. On Wednesday, just two weeks after releasing its schedule for buying back older Treasury securities, the Treasury Department announced it would “at least double” its planned purchases of outstanding 10-year to 30-year debt.
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Morning report

ETF Friday: Will ETFs exacerbate the weakness in the “Big Four Banks”

The ASX 200 closed up +0.3% on Thursday with the resources, ably supported by tech, finally able to offset weakness from the banks, ending a six-day losing streak. On the day, the materials sector added 85-points to the ASX 200 while the financial sector caused a 57-point drag, big numbers when we consider the index only closed up +30-points. The polarisation in performance through August between the banks and miners has been almost unparalleled.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Does the analogy “Don’t fight the Fed” also apply to the US Treasury as they start buying bonds?

The US yield curve has been steepening sharply, with the gap between 2 and 30-year yields widening to ~111bp from ~69bp in late June. Importantly, this is a bear steepener: long-term yields have been rising much faster than short-term yields, reflecting growing investor concern around US deficits, sticky inflation, elevated oil prices and the enormous supply of government and corporate debt. At the same time, softer economic data and a Fed appearing to be on hold for now are keeping the 2-year yield relatively anchored.
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Reporting season finally offers a steadying hand to the ASX

The ASX 200 closed flat on Wednesday, experiencing a quiet day on the index level but anything but on the stock front following a bumper session for FY26 earnings. Only ~30% of the main board closed higher, but when CSL (+17%), BHP (+3%), and Goodman Group (+3%) dance to the same beat, adding 70 points to the ASX 200, it was always going to be a tough day for the bears, even if the crowd was in their camp.
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MM remains bullish towards the ASX200 around 9075
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NDQ
MM remains bullish towards the NASDAQ around 29,000
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MM remains bullish toward the AUD-Yen
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MM is bullish towards premium coking coal
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MM is long and bullish towards WHC
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MM is cautiously bullish towards thermal coal
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NHC
MM is long and bullish NHC around $6.05
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YAL
MM is cautiously bullish towards YAL around $6.20
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MM is long but considering exiting BTU
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Latest Reports

Morning report

ETF Friday: Has NVIDIA just reignited tech ETFs?

The ASX 200 was clobbered on Thursday, as a trifecta of bad news overshadowed another impressive result from Nvidia. Selling was broad-based, with more than 75% of the main board leading the market's worst day since June. Globally, it was a session that favoured semiconductors over miners, an unfortunate combination for the local market given the ASX is heavily exposed to the latter and has virtually none of the former:

Morning report

What Matters Today: Sticky inflation, opportunity or worry?

The ASX 200 surrendered early gains on Wednesday after inflation data came in far stronger than expected, weighing heavily on overall sentiment and specifically the rate-sensitive names. Just to compound the market’s woes, yesterday's reporting wasn’t kind, with major disappointments from Worley (-10.8%), WiseTech (-10.1%), and Flight Centre (-7.4%) offsetting further strength in gold and copper names.

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Copper stocks set for another big session

The ASX 200 enjoyed a more broad-based advance on Tuesday, with 70% of the main board closing higher, pushing the index up +0.7%. The banks finally gave the index a helping hand, but they still couldn’t figure in the top 3 stocks contributing to the market's 62-point advance; the podium was headed by BHP, again (+9 points), followed by CSL (+7-points), and Suncorp (+5-points). Elsewhere, we saw some profit-taking creep into the high-flying gold sector while the tech stocks more than picked up the slack, taking their cue from a reversal higher by the semiconductor-driven Korean KOSPI Index.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Has Kazatomprom just reignited the Uranium Trade?

The ASX 200 rallied +0.5% on Monday to close just above the psychological 9100 level, but it wasn't all plain sailing with less than 55% of the main board closing higher. The story remained consistent on the sector front, with the gains by the materials (+61 points) minus the financials (-21 points) almost exactly equalling the day's +44-point net advance. The miners remain the driving force of the ASX, and the reason we’ve recently been outperforming the US, especially since the Treasury pledged support to try and rein in long-dated US bond yields. BHP Group (BHP) grabbed the headlines on Monday, posting new all-time highs, but there were plenty of standout performances amongst the big miners.

Morning report

Macro Monday: Washington “needs” cheaper money & it’s great for our miners!

Last week saw Scott Bessent emerge as one of the most interventionist Treasury secretaries in financial markets in decades, putting his and the Treasury's credibility on the line in an effort to combat the damaging rise in US borrowing costs. On Wednesday, just two weeks after releasing its schedule for buying back older Treasury securities, the Treasury Department announced it would “at least double” its planned purchases of outstanding 10-year to 30-year debt.

Morning report

ETF Friday: Will ETFs exacerbate the weakness in the “Big Four Banks”

The ASX 200 closed up +0.3% on Thursday with the resources, ably supported by tech, finally able to offset weakness from the banks, ending a six-day losing streak. On the day, the materials sector added 85-points to the ASX 200 while the financial sector caused a 57-point drag, big numbers when we consider the index only closed up +30-points. The polarisation in performance through August between the banks and miners has been almost unparalleled.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Does the analogy “Don’t fight the Fed” also apply to the US Treasury as they start buying bonds?

The US yield curve has been steepening sharply, with the gap between 2 and 30-year yields widening to ~111bp from ~69bp in late June. Importantly, this is a bear steepener: long-term yields have been rising much faster than short-term yields, reflecting growing investor concern around US deficits, sticky inflation, elevated oil prices and the enormous supply of government and corporate debt. At the same time, softer economic data and a Fed appearing to be on hold for now are keeping the 2-year yield relatively anchored.

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Reporting season finally offers a steadying hand to the ASX

The ASX 200 closed flat on Wednesday, experiencing a quiet day on the index level but anything but on the stock front following a bumper session for FY26 earnings. Only ~30% of the main board closed higher, but when CSL (+17%), BHP (+3%), and Goodman Group (+3%) dance to the same beat, adding 70 points to the ASX 200, it was always going to be a tough day for the bears, even if the crowd was in their camp.

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