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Morning report

ETF Friday: Three ETFs MM Is Watching as US Inflows Hit US$1 Trillion

US-listed ETFs attracted more than US$1 trillion in inflows during 1H26, the quickest time the industry has ever reached the impressive milestone. However, the rally was highly concentrated, with around 800 ETFs attracting little or no investor flows. To put these numbers into perspective, the US ETF industry has grown to ~US$19 trillion in AUM as of early 2026, with over 3,000 listed ETFs in the US market.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Are the semiconductors a ticking time bomb, or time to buy into panic?

The ASX 200 continues to ride the volatile rollercoaster it's been aboard for well over 400-days. Last week the local market looked destined for new all-time highs following triple-digit gains on Friday, close on the heels of a strong performance on the Thursday. This morning we're sitting at our desks contemplating what's next after President Trump declared the ceasefire with “scum” Iran is over; we knew he wasn’t happy following the USA’s debacle of an exit from the World Cup, but we didn’t think global tensions would escalate in just a matter of hours. The news is already sounding so familiar to much of the last quarter:
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Tweaking Portfolios as we enter FY27

The ASX200 fell away on Tuesday, finishing the soft session down 0.3% as further weakness in the miners offset a resurgence by the influential banks. While the gold and lithium names dominated the losers' enclosure from a performance perspective, it was the heavyweights in the materials sector that weighed on the index, with BHP Group (ASX: BHP), Northern Star (ASX: NST) and Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN) hitting the index by more than 0.3% on their own.
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Morning report

Macro Monday: Has the Fed reignited the bull case for equities?

Last month, the new Fed Chair struck a hawkish tone in his first press conference, sending gold and copper prices lower while lifting the US dollar after signalling policymakers remained prepared to raise interest rates further if required to rein in inflation.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Should we chase or fade the 5 big movers from Wednesday?

The ASX 200 followed US futures lower on the first day of FY27, finishing the session down -0.6%, and testing three-week lows in the process. While weakness was broad-based, with over 60% of the main board closing lower, the financials contributed close to 90% of the decline as fears grow that Australia's housing market is deteriorating faster than initially feared, with the trifecta of cost-of-living pressures, three RBA rate hikes in 2026 and the recent changes for property investors in the budget keeping buyers firmly on the sidelines.
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Will the Resources Outperform Again in FY27

The ASX200 accelerated on the downside into the EOFY close on Tuesday, ultimately finishing the session down by -0.5% with investors appearing keen to lock in some tax losses ahead of FY27. The market ultimately waved goodbye to FY26 with a paltry +2.8% gain, although considering we had a war in the middle of it and oil trading above US100/barrel it wasn’t a bad result. We expect FY27 to deliver similar volatility on the stock and sector level but hopefully without the geopolitical interruptions.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Five Quiet Achievers Delivering in 2026

The ASX 200 finished strongly on Monday, closing back above 8800 despite renewed geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. Financials and materials contributed around 70% of Monday’s gains, although the broader market was stronger than it looked, with much of the real estate sector trading ex-dividend. Healthcare also stood out again, with CSL managing to edge 0.5% higher despite warning it expects to halt new EU patient starts for Tavneos- clearly there's a lot of bad news built into the CSL share price ~$115, suggesting limited downside from here.
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Morning report

Macro Monday: Could the AI Trade be the next Gold & Bitcoin?

Last week saw a sharp reversal across the high-flying semiconductor stocks, many of which had surged around fourfold over the past 12 months. We have already seen in Bitcoin and gold over the past year that crowded enthusiasm can unwind quickly when the mood shifts. Even SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) closed more than 30% below its post-IPO high on Friday.
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MM remains bullish towards the ASX200, around 8750
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BHP
MM is long and bullish towards BHP around $57
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MM is bullish towards the Dow around the 52,500 level
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MM is bullish towards the RSP ETF around US$213.50
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MM is neutral towards the CORO ETF around US$36
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MM is bullish towards the SMH ETF around US$600
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Latest Reports

Morning report

What Matters Today: Are the semiconductors a ticking time bomb, or time to buy into panic?

The ASX 200 continues to ride the volatile rollercoaster it's been aboard for well over 400-days. Last week the local market looked destined for new all-time highs following triple-digit gains on Friday, close on the heels of a strong performance on the Thursday. This morning we're sitting at our desks contemplating what's next after President Trump declared the ceasefire with “scum” Iran is over; we knew he wasn’t happy following the USA’s debacle of an exit from the World Cup, but we didn’t think global tensions would escalate in just a matter of hours. The news is already sounding so familiar to much of the last quarter:

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Tweaking Portfolios as we enter FY27

The ASX200 fell away on Tuesday, finishing the soft session down 0.3% as further weakness in the miners offset a resurgence by the influential banks. While the gold and lithium names dominated the losers' enclosure from a performance perspective, it was the heavyweights in the materials sector that weighed on the index, with BHP Group (ASX: BHP), Northern Star (ASX: NST) and Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN) hitting the index by more than 0.3% on their own.

Morning report

What Matters Today: How to Invest as the Market Rally Broadens Beyond the “AI Trade”

The ASX 200 slipped 0.2% on Monday, in a lacklustre session that only saw 40% of the main board close higher despite encouraging moves by US futures during local market trade. Ongoing stock and sector reversion was evident, in particular with some major underperformers of the last 12 months enjoying a return to the winners' enclosure.

Morning report

Macro Monday: Has the Fed reignited the bull case for equities?

Last month, the new Fed Chair struck a hawkish tone in his first press conference, sending gold and copper prices lower while lifting the US dollar after signalling policymakers remained prepared to raise interest rates further if required to rein in inflation.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Should we chase or fade the 5 big movers from Wednesday?

The ASX 200 followed US futures lower on the first day of FY27, finishing the session down -0.6%, and testing three-week lows in the process. While weakness was broad-based, with over 60% of the main board closing lower, the financials contributed close to 90% of the decline as fears grow that Australia's housing market is deteriorating faster than initially feared, with the trifecta of cost-of-living pressures, three RBA rate hikes in 2026 and the recent changes for property investors in the budget keeping buyers firmly on the sidelines.

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Will the Resources Outperform Again in FY27

The ASX200 accelerated on the downside into the EOFY close on Tuesday, ultimately finishing the session down by -0.5% with investors appearing keen to lock in some tax losses ahead of FY27. The market ultimately waved goodbye to FY26 with a paltry +2.8% gain, although considering we had a war in the middle of it and oil trading above US100/barrel it wasn’t a bad result. We expect FY27 to deliver similar volatility on the stock and sector level but hopefully without the geopolitical interruptions.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Five Quiet Achievers Delivering in 2026

The ASX 200 finished strongly on Monday, closing back above 8800 despite renewed geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. Financials and materials contributed around 70% of Monday’s gains, although the broader market was stronger than it looked, with much of the real estate sector trading ex-dividend. Healthcare also stood out again, with CSL managing to edge 0.5% higher despite warning it expects to halt new EU patient starts for Tavneos- clearly there's a lot of bad news built into the CSL share price ~$115, suggesting limited downside from here.

Morning report

Macro Monday: Could the AI Trade be the next Gold & Bitcoin?

Last week saw a sharp reversal across the high-flying semiconductor stocks, many of which had surged around fourfold over the past 12 months. We have already seen in Bitcoin and gold over the past year that crowded enthusiasm can unwind quickly when the mood shifts. Even SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) closed more than 30% below its post-IPO high on Friday.

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