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Morning report

ETF Friday: Four ETFs to consider if the ASX follows the 2022/2026 road map

The ASX 200 was clobbered on Thursday, falling more than 1% as broad-based selling left just 20% of the main board in positive territory. However, the market did recover 77 points from its intraday low, trimming around 45% of the day’s decline by the close. Yesterday was the local market’s third consecutive decline, with a fourth likely today, and its largest daily fall in more than three months.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Could the BOJ & US Treasury trigger the next ASX rotation?

The ASX 200 extended September's pullback by another -0.1% on Wednesday despite a barnstorming session for the heavyweight copper miners - BHP Group (+3.3%), Sandfire (+2%) and RIO (+1.9%). However, broad-based weakness, which saw over 60% of the main board retreat, with standout selling in the CBA (-2.5%) enough to drag the index under 8900. Another strong move in oil prices, which rallied over 2% during local trade, was enough to keep buyers on the sidelines as it increasingly feels like the US has lost control of events in the Straits of Hormuz. We defer back to a comment in yesterday's report:
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: The “reverse wealth effect” is weighing on the ASX

September is living up to its seasonally weak reputation, with the ASX 200 falling another 1% on Tuesday to close at a fresh six-week low. Local stocks endured their worst session in three months as selling swept across the market, as more than 65% of the main board closed lower, with the banks doing the most damage, accounting for roughly half of the index’s decline.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Beijing pushes Iron Ore over US100/MT, fade or buy time?

The ASX 200 endured a choppy Monday before closing +0.1% higher, with the broader market remaining soft, but gains from heavyweights BHP, CBA and Woodside were enough to nudge the index into positive territory. The weekend's ongoing volatility in the Strait of Hormuz helped the energy sector (+1.8%) dominate the winners' enclosure. In comparison, the ASX tech sector fell (-2.6%) as tech money moved from software stocks into semiconductors, which the ASX basically has none of.
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Morning report

Macro Monday: Central banks look poised to rein in stocks over the coming weeks/months

Bond markets and central banks are back in focus after Friday night's August US jobs report came in far stronger than expected, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 162,000—more than triple consensus forecasts—while unemployment held steady at 4.1%. Labour-force participation also improved, and prior months were revised higher, reinforcing signs that the jobs market has rebounded from its early-summer softness, shifting attention firmly to this week’s CPI (inflation) data, with the resilient labour market increasing the prospect of a Fed rate hike at next week's meeting.
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Morning report

ETF Friday: Comparing the nuances between LICs, LITs & ETFs

The ASX 200 bounced +0.5% on Thursday, regaining some of the previous session's steep losses as the heavyweight banks, ably supported by the miners, combined to lift the index, not a bad performance with BHP, Coles, Amco and Woodside all trading ex-dividend. To put the banks’ strength into perspective, the Big Four alone accounted for ~50% of the market’s advance on the day.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Do we already have the “bond rout” roadmap?

The ASX 200 was clobbered 1.0% on Wednesday as broad-based selling rolled through the local bourse as surging global bond yields continued to dominate the financial press. More than 70% of the main board retreated, with the tech (-3.4%) and materials (-3.1%) vying for the wooden spoon as risk-off sentiment was evident across the market - the defensive-oriented consumer staples (+0.8%) were not surprisingly the best-performing sector.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Can coal stocks extend August’s strength?

The ASX 200 recovered impressively from an early sell-off to finish the final session of August down just -0.2%, a better outcome than we expected, with the Big Four banks adding around 30 points to the index. Interestingly, while resources retreated following Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish comments on Friday and renewed tensions between the US and Iran, there was little evidence of broad-based selling.
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MM is cautiously bullish towards the ASX200, around 8800
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NDQ
MM remains bullish towards the NASDAQ around 29,000
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MM remains bullish towards copper
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MM is neutral towards the ATEC ETF around $21
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MVB
MM is neutral towards the MVB ETF around $41.50
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OZR
MM is neutral towards the OZR around $18.50
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VAP
MM is neutral towards the VAP ETF around $84
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Latest Reports

Morning report

What Matters Today: Could the BOJ & US Treasury trigger the next ASX rotation?

The ASX 200 extended September's pullback by another -0.1% on Wednesday despite a barnstorming session for the heavyweight copper miners - BHP Group (+3.3%), Sandfire (+2%) and RIO (+1.9%). However, broad-based weakness, which saw over 60% of the main board retreat, with standout selling in the CBA (-2.5%) enough to drag the index under 8900. Another strong move in oil prices, which rallied over 2% during local trade, was enough to keep buyers on the sidelines as it increasingly feels like the US has lost control of events in the Straits of Hormuz. We defer back to a comment in yesterday's report:

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: The “reverse wealth effect” is weighing on the ASX

September is living up to its seasonally weak reputation, with the ASX 200 falling another 1% on Tuesday to close at a fresh six-week low. Local stocks endured their worst session in three months as selling swept across the market, as more than 65% of the main board closed lower, with the banks doing the most damage, accounting for roughly half of the index’s decline.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Beijing pushes Iron Ore over US100/MT, fade or buy time?

The ASX 200 endured a choppy Monday before closing +0.1% higher, with the broader market remaining soft, but gains from heavyweights BHP, CBA and Woodside were enough to nudge the index into positive territory. The weekend's ongoing volatility in the Strait of Hormuz helped the energy sector (+1.8%) dominate the winners' enclosure. In comparison, the ASX tech sector fell (-2.6%) as tech money moved from software stocks into semiconductors, which the ASX basically has none of.

Morning report

Macro Monday: Central banks look poised to rein in stocks over the coming weeks/months

Bond markets and central banks are back in focus after Friday night's August US jobs report came in far stronger than expected, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 162,000—more than triple consensus forecasts—while unemployment held steady at 4.1%. Labour-force participation also improved, and prior months were revised higher, reinforcing signs that the jobs market has rebounded from its early-summer softness, shifting attention firmly to this week’s CPI (inflation) data, with the resilient labour market increasing the prospect of a Fed rate hike at next week's meeting.

Morning report

ETF Friday: Comparing the nuances between LICs, LITs & ETFs

The ASX 200 bounced +0.5% on Thursday, regaining some of the previous session's steep losses as the heavyweight banks, ably supported by the miners, combined to lift the index, not a bad performance with BHP, Coles, Amco and Woodside all trading ex-dividend. To put the banks’ strength into perspective, the Big Four alone accounted for ~50% of the market’s advance on the day.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Do we already have the “bond rout” roadmap?

The ASX 200 was clobbered 1.0% on Wednesday as broad-based selling rolled through the local bourse as surging global bond yields continued to dominate the financial press. More than 70% of the main board retreated, with the tech (-3.4%) and materials (-3.1%) vying for the wooden spoon as risk-off sentiment was evident across the market - the defensive-oriented consumer staples (+0.8%) were not surprisingly the best-performing sector.

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: The “SaaSpocalypse” is showing signs of being wrong!

The ASX 200 bounced strongly from its early morning low on Tuesday, recovering ~80% of its initial drop to end the session down just -0.1%. A solid performance in our opinion, considering the negative lead from global bonds as oil prices continued to climb on renewed tensions in the Middle East.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Can coal stocks extend August’s strength?

The ASX 200 recovered impressively from an early sell-off to finish the final session of August down just -0.2%, a better outcome than we expected, with the Big Four banks adding around 30 points to the index. Interestingly, while resources retreated following Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish comments on Friday and renewed tensions between the US and Iran, there was little evidence of broad-based selling.

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