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Morning report

ETF Friday: Are ETFs the way to invest for a bottom in the software sector?

The ASX 200 tested its all-time high at lunchtime yesterday before peeling away to close up just +0.3% as the dramatic polarisation across the ASX continues in earnest - already in 2026, we’ve witnessed the Tech Sector hammered by over -20% while the Materials have gained more than +12%, compounding the dramatic rotation through FY26. It's becoming almost monotonous to quote how far the major tech names have fallen day to day. However, it's hard to ignore; it felt like capitulation on Thursday, but there's already been a few chapters in that particular scary book - on the day, SiteMinder (SDR) -12.9%, Xero (XRO) -8.4%, Life360 (360) -8.3%, and Technology One (TNE) -6.9%.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: CBA puts the banks on centre stage

The ASX 200 soared +1.7%, enjoying its best day since October, posting 3-month highs in the process. Rallies by the heavyweight financials and materials sectors drove the move, led by strong earnings beats from Commonwealth Bank (CBA) and James Hardie (JHX). Although 8 of the main 11 sectors closed higher, the financials dominated the day, contributing 70% of the main boards' gain following the storming performance by CBA after its 1H profit topped expectations - more on the banks later.
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Eyes down as reporting season kicks into gear

The ASX200 surrendered its early gains on Tuesday to end marginally lower after being up almost 60-points early in the session. Eight of 11 local sectors ended the session higher, as strong miners, energy, and IT stocks offset a 1.1% slump in the financial sector, with the insurers weak and bank selling gathering momentum during the day.
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Morning report

Macro Monday: Astronomical AI spending reverberates through global equities

What a week. Markets ran for cover as fears mounted that artificial intelligence (AI) could render many software business models redundant, or at least sharply devalue them. The issue was compounded by the fact that many of these software names were trading on lofty valuations in the anticipation of unrelenting growth. The potential risk of contraction compared to expansion has seen numerous household names halve in value over the last 6 months, from Xero and WiseTech on the ASX to Atlassian and Adobe in the US.
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Morning report

ETF Friday: Looking at the market’s volatility through the eye of an ETF lens

The ASX 200 had a fairly quiet day at the index level, while at the stock/sector level, it was like Guy Fawkes night, with fireworks flying in every direction. Thursday's session saw further aggressive selling across the high-flying resources, while some recently out-of-favour stocks came back into favour as selective bargain hunting played out across the ASX. Perhaps some switching/rotation is taking hold as commodity prices look to cool.
Read more
Morning report

What Matters Today: Assessing the risks to incumbent software companies from AI

The ASX 200 rallied 0.8% on Wednesday, but the index wasn’t where the real action was. It was a tale of two sectors: strong buying across the miners, and aggressive selling in software stocks. Concerns around AI disruption reverberated through global markets on Tuesday night, and the local names weren’t spared yesterday; if anything, they magnified the losses with most stocks closing on their intraday low as money poured into the more tangible resources stocks.
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: It’s official, the ASX must swim against the tide of rising rates

The ASX200 leapt out of the gate on Tuesday, embracing strong gains on Wall Street and a bounce across influential metal stocks, helping the material sector post a 1.5% gain. Interestingly, the embattled tech sector also enjoyed a rare day in the sun, gaining +1.9%. It's not often that an RBA rate hike has to vie for the market's attention, but that was the case yesterday as there was little surprise from Michelle Bullock et al while the precious metal rollercoaster kept riding high - gold traded in a relatively quiet $US330/oz range over the last 24-hours, absurd compared to its historical volatility.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Four stocks we like as market volatility lifts (+1 new trade idea)

Monday saw the ASX 200 open sharply lower and continue to fall throughout most of the day as the miners were smacked following the aggressive selling in the US on Friday. The weakness extended during our day session, with silver down another 10% in the afternoon. The weakness in the mining stocks was by far the biggest drag on the ASX200, with the materials sectors 3.1% decline wiping 68-points off the main board, or 75% of the days 1% drop. The falls across the resource names were significant, considering the losses already endured on Friday:
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Morning report

Macro Monday: Crowded Trades unravel again when the music stops playing

Recent years have seen a sharp rise in crowded trades as momentum investing has come into vogue. But as so often happens when the music stops playing, conviction can evaporate in an instant. In the blink of an eye, trillions can be wiped out as investors and traders stampede toward the same narrow exit.
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MM remains neutral towards the ASX200, around 9050
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NDQ
MM remains negative towards the Nasdaq 100 around 24,700 short-term
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MM is neutral towards the ATEC ETF in the short term
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MM is neutral towards the IGV ETF around the $US81 area
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Latest Reports

Morning report

What Matters Today: CBA puts the banks on centre stage

The ASX 200 soared +1.7%, enjoying its best day since October, posting 3-month highs in the process. Rallies by the heavyweight financials and materials sectors drove the move, led by strong earnings beats from Commonwealth Bank (CBA) and James Hardie (JHX). Although 8 of the main 11 sectors closed higher, the financials dominated the day, contributing 70% of the main boards' gain following the storming performance by CBA after its 1H profit topped expectations - more on the banks later.

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Eyes down as reporting season kicks into gear

The ASX200 surrendered its early gains on Tuesday to end marginally lower after being up almost 60-points early in the session. Eight of 11 local sectors ended the session higher, as strong miners, energy, and IT stocks offset a 1.1% slump in the financial sector, with the insurers weak and bank selling gathering momentum during the day.

Morning report

Macro Monday: Astronomical AI spending reverberates through global equities

What a week. Markets ran for cover as fears mounted that artificial intelligence (AI) could render many software business models redundant, or at least sharply devalue them. The issue was compounded by the fact that many of these software names were trading on lofty valuations in the anticipation of unrelenting growth. The potential risk of contraction compared to expansion has seen numerous household names halve in value over the last 6 months, from Xero and WiseTech on the ASX to Atlassian and Adobe in the US.

Morning report

ETF Friday: Looking at the market’s volatility through the eye of an ETF lens

The ASX 200 had a fairly quiet day at the index level, while at the stock/sector level, it was like Guy Fawkes night, with fireworks flying in every direction. Thursday's session saw further aggressive selling across the high-flying resources, while some recently out-of-favour stocks came back into favour as selective bargain hunting played out across the ASX. Perhaps some switching/rotation is taking hold as commodity prices look to cool.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Assessing the risks to incumbent software companies from AI

The ASX 200 rallied 0.8% on Wednesday, but the index wasn’t where the real action was. It was a tale of two sectors: strong buying across the miners, and aggressive selling in software stocks. Concerns around AI disruption reverberated through global markets on Tuesday night, and the local names weren’t spared yesterday; if anything, they magnified the losses with most stocks closing on their intraday low as money poured into the more tangible resources stocks.

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: It’s official, the ASX must swim against the tide of rising rates

The ASX200 leapt out of the gate on Tuesday, embracing strong gains on Wall Street and a bounce across influential metal stocks, helping the material sector post a 1.5% gain. Interestingly, the embattled tech sector also enjoyed a rare day in the sun, gaining +1.9%. It's not often that an RBA rate hike has to vie for the market's attention, but that was the case yesterday as there was little surprise from Michelle Bullock et al while the precious metal rollercoaster kept riding high - gold traded in a relatively quiet $US330/oz range over the last 24-hours, absurd compared to its historical volatility.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Four stocks we like as market volatility lifts (+1 new trade idea)

Monday saw the ASX 200 open sharply lower and continue to fall throughout most of the day as the miners were smacked following the aggressive selling in the US on Friday. The weakness extended during our day session, with silver down another 10% in the afternoon. The weakness in the mining stocks was by far the biggest drag on the ASX200, with the materials sectors 3.1% decline wiping 68-points off the main board, or 75% of the days 1% drop. The falls across the resource names were significant, considering the losses already endured on Friday:

Morning report

Macro Monday: Crowded Trades unravel again when the music stops playing

Recent years have seen a sharp rise in crowded trades as momentum investing has come into vogue. But as so often happens when the music stops playing, conviction can evaporate in an instant. In the blink of an eye, trillions can be wiped out as investors and traders stampede toward the same narrow exit.

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