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Morning report

Macro Monday: Rotation continues as a hawkish Fed weighs on stocks

The Fed may have left interest rates unchanged last week, but its accompanying commentary caught the market napping. Incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting delivered a clear message: inflation remains the enemy, rate cuts are not guaranteed, and investors should continue to expect a data-dependent Fed.
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Morning report

ETF Friday: Four unheralded ASX ETFs MM likes into Christmas

The ASX200 ended its 4-day rally on Thursday, with 65% of the main board closing lower after the US Fed held interest rates in its first meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, but signalled that tightening may be necessary to rein in inflation. It was a relatively muted session for the local bourse with only five stocks moving by more than 5%, although they were all in the losers' corner, primarily from the gold space.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Travel stocks take off as Ceasefire gets acknowledged

The ASX 200 enjoyed another solid performance on Wednesday, again reversing higher from early weakness to end the session up +0.6%, at a 2-month high and only a few points below the psychological 9000 level. It was a clear “risk on” session with only the defensive-oriented consumer staples and utilities sectors closing lower, along with the energy sector, which was weighed down by crude's inability to recover any of its recent ~15% drop over the last five days. From a points perspective, it was the heavyweight financials and miners that performed the heavy lifting, a very encouraging combination for the bulls.
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Morning report

The Match Out: Miners take the baton as energy rolls over

The ASX shook off a weak start to finish firmly higher today, extending its recent recovery as investors continued rotating out of energy and into resources, financials and growth exposures. The market opened lower before steadily improving through the session, with buying increasing into the afternoon as optimism around US-Iran agreements accelerated with a proper framework and further details of the deal expected imminently.
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The Match Out Market Matters 2
Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: The BoJ Hikes to a 30-Year High While the RBA Holds

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), as expected, left interest rates at 4.35%, although Michelle Bullock warned that inflation remains too high. The central bank now faces a delicate balancing act, weighing stubbornly high inflation against mounting signs of softness across the labour market, consumer spending and housing sectors.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: SpaceX Disruption: Is the Market Right to Fear for Telcos?

The ASX 200 rallied another +1.3% on Monday, following reports that the US and Iran have agreed on the terms of a peace deal. The index extended its advance for June to more than +2%, taking it back within ~3% of its February all-time high, ironically just before the US-Iran conflict erupted. Gains were fairly broad-based, with 70% of the main board advancing.
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Morning report

Macro Monday: SpaceX IPO illustrates how Liquidity could lift “Risk” Assets

SpaceX’s (NASDAQ: SPCX) much-heralded IPO hit the boards on Friday, rewarding the lucky initial buyers with a +19% gain, and turning its founder, Elon Musk, into the world’s first trillionaire. At the same time, the record-breaking IPO created a US$2.2 trillion behemoth, making it one of the largest companies in the world despite investors still debating its path to sustainable profitability.
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Lithium’s Big Rally: Is a Gold or Bitcoin-style correction around the corner?

The ASX 200 enjoyed another solid performance on Wednesday, trading lower in the first hour before again pushing up throughout the session to finish the day up +0.6%. The local bourse has delivered consecutive strong intra-day performances, despite headwinds from overseas markets, with US S&P futures trending lower while we pushed higher, daring us to question if the ASX has finally regained its mojo?
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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: The ASX shrugs off Consumer Confidence, testing multi-decade lows

The ASX showed impressive resilience on Tuesday, reversing early triple-digit losses to finish down just 0.21%, in a near carbon copy of the previous week's price action. The broader market was healthier than the index implied, with fewer than 40% of stocks on the main board closing lower. However, the heavyweight miners continued to cause a significant drag, with BHP alone effectively accounting for all of the ASX200's decline. As June 30 approaches, some profit-taking and performance reversion are beginning to emerge across one of the market's standout-performing sectors.
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MM is mildly bullish toward European banks after their lacklustre 1H
MM is bullish towards the ASX200 around 8800
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NDQ
MM remains bullish towards the NASDAQ around 30,400
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MM is bullish towards the FTSE around 10,400
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MM is neutral towards UK Gilts
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VGB
MM is bullish towards Australian 3’s (negative/bearish yields)
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OOO
MM is neutral bearish towards Brent Crude around US$80
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MM remains bullish towards gold through 2026/7
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MM remains bullish towards copper ~US$6.40/lb
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MM remains bullish toward the $A medium term
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ARB
Trade Idea: Buy ARB Corp Ltd (ARB) at $19.65 with stops at $18.05, around 8% risk
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TLX
Trade Idea: Buy Telix Pharma (TLX) at $14.55 with stops at $12.70, around 12% risk
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XRO
MM is bullish towards XRO around $72
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Latest Reports

Morning report

ETF Friday: Four unheralded ASX ETFs MM likes into Christmas

The ASX200 ended its 4-day rally on Thursday, with 65% of the main board closing lower after the US Fed held interest rates in its first meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, but signalled that tightening may be necessary to rein in inflation. It was a relatively muted session for the local bourse with only five stocks moving by more than 5%, although they were all in the losers' corner, primarily from the gold space.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Travel stocks take off as Ceasefire gets acknowledged

The ASX 200 enjoyed another solid performance on Wednesday, again reversing higher from early weakness to end the session up +0.6%, at a 2-month high and only a few points below the psychological 9000 level. It was a clear “risk on” session with only the defensive-oriented consumer staples and utilities sectors closing lower, along with the energy sector, which was weighed down by crude's inability to recover any of its recent ~15% drop over the last five days. From a points perspective, it was the heavyweight financials and miners that performed the heavy lifting, a very encouraging combination for the bulls.

Morning report

The Match Out: Miners take the baton as energy rolls over

The ASX shook off a weak start to finish firmly higher today, extending its recent recovery as investors continued rotating out of energy and into resources, financials and growth exposures. The market opened lower before steadily improving through the session, with buying increasing into the afternoon as optimism around US-Iran agreements accelerated with a proper framework and further details of the deal expected imminently.

The Match Out Market Matters 2
Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: The BoJ Hikes to a 30-Year High While the RBA Holds

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), as expected, left interest rates at 4.35%, although Michelle Bullock warned that inflation remains too high. The central bank now faces a delicate balancing act, weighing stubbornly high inflation against mounting signs of softness across the labour market, consumer spending and housing sectors.

Morning report

What Matters Today: SpaceX Disruption: Is the Market Right to Fear for Telcos?

The ASX 200 rallied another +1.3% on Monday, following reports that the US and Iran have agreed on the terms of a peace deal. The index extended its advance for June to more than +2%, taking it back within ~3% of its February all-time high, ironically just before the US-Iran conflict erupted. Gains were fairly broad-based, with 70% of the main board advancing.

Morning report

Macro Monday: SpaceX IPO illustrates how Liquidity could lift “Risk” Assets

SpaceX’s (NASDAQ: SPCX) much-heralded IPO hit the boards on Friday, rewarding the lucky initial buyers with a +19% gain, and turning its founder, Elon Musk, into the world’s first trillionaire. At the same time, the record-breaking IPO created a US$2.2 trillion behemoth, making it one of the largest companies in the world despite investors still debating its path to sustainable profitability.

Morning report

ETF Friday: Don’t Fear the Dip – Four Global Equity ETFs MM likes into Weakness

For the 3rd consecutive session, the ASX200 opened on its lows only to defy the bears and news headlines to drive higher. If it weren't for the “Big Four Banks” tumbling ~2%, the index would have closed up on the day, with the four pillars taking more than 40-points off an index that only slipped 20-points.

Morning report

What Matters Today: Lithium’s Big Rally: Is a Gold or Bitcoin-style correction around the corner?

The ASX 200 enjoyed another solid performance on Wednesday, trading lower in the first hour before again pushing up throughout the session to finish the day up +0.6%. The local bourse has delivered consecutive strong intra-day performances, despite headwinds from overseas markets, with US S&P futures trending lower while we pushed higher, daring us to question if the ASX has finally regained its mojo?

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: The ASX shrugs off Consumer Confidence, testing multi-decade lows

The ASX showed impressive resilience on Tuesday, reversing early triple-digit losses to finish down just 0.21%, in a near carbon copy of the previous week's price action. The broader market was healthier than the index implied, with fewer than 40% of stocks on the main board closing lower. However, the heavyweight miners continued to cause a significant drag, with BHP alone effectively accounting for all of the ASX200's decline. As June 30 approaches, some profit-taking and performance reversion are beginning to emerge across one of the market's standout-performing sectors.

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