The ASX200 accelerated on the downside into the EOFY close on Tuesday, ultimately finishing the session down by -0.5% with investors appearing keen to lock in some tax losses ahead of FY27. The market ultimately waved goodbye to FY26 with a paltry +2.8% gain, although considering we had a war in the middle of it and oil trading above US100/barrel it wasn’t a bad result. We expect FY27 to deliver similar volatility on the stock and sector level but hopefully without the geopolitical interruptions.
The ASX 200 finished strongly on Monday, closing back above 8800 despite renewed geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. Financials and materials contributed around 70% of Monday’s gains, although the broader market was stronger than it looked, with much of the real estate sector trading ex-dividend. Healthcare also stood out again, with CSL managing to edge 0.5% higher despite warning it expects to halt new EU patient starts for Tavneos- clearly there's a lot of bad news built into the CSL share price ~$115, suggesting limited downside from here.
Last week saw a sharp reversal across the high-flying semiconductor stocks, many of which had surged around fourfold over the past 12 months. We have already seen in Bitcoin and gold over the past year that crowded enthusiasm can unwind quickly when the mood shifts. Even SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) closed more than 30% below its post-IPO high on Friday.
The ASX200 retreated by -0.7% on Thursday, yet the number of winners and losers was evenly matched. As we’ve touched on a few times this week, the market is going through a “risk-off” period with investors rotating into some of the more defensive and often underperforming names of FY26. If MM is correct and the $A finds support ~69c, the current aggressive profit-taking in the miners could be approaching its conclusion, perhaps in time for the start of FY27.
The ASX 200 rebounded 0.2% on Wednesday as ASX software names benefited from rotation out of Asian chipmakers, on what felt like a first for 2026, with gains the most aggressive where losses have been the steepest: WiseTech Global (+14%) and Xero (+9%). The toughest call at the moment is whether we are seeing some meaningful reversion, or simply ongoing EOFY book squaring.
The ASX200 lost early gains on Tuesday, as tech selling cascaded around the world following SpaceX’s ~16% fall in US trade. Yesterday's sell-off in the semiconductor stocks, some of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI boom, gathered momentum throughout the day, and saw the Korean Kospi close down 10%, with SK Hynix Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. both sliding more than 12%.
The ASX 200 slipped 0.1% on Monday, not a bad performance considering US S&P 500 futures were trading lower, WiseTech (ASX: WTC) was hammered -18% following reports that police were investigating its chair, Richard White, and BHP Group (ASX: BH) fell another ~$1. Fortunately, the banks bucked the trend with all of the “Big Four” closing higher, a potential theme over the coming months, which we touched on in this week's Macro Monday Report.
The Fed may have left interest rates unchanged last week, but its accompanying commentary caught the market napping. Incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting delivered a clear message: inflation remains the enemy, rate cuts are not guaranteed, and investors should continue to expect a data-dependent Fed.
The ASX200 ended its 4-day rally on Thursday, with 65% of the main board closing lower after the US Fed held interest rates in its first meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, but signalled that tightening may be necessary to rein in inflation. It was a relatively muted session for the local bourse with only five stocks moving by more than 5%, although they were all in the losers' corner, primarily from the gold space.
The ASX 200 enjoyed another solid performance on Wednesday, again reversing higher from early weakness to end the session up +0.6%, at a 2-month high and only a few points below the psychological 9000 level. It was a clear “risk on” session with only the defensive-oriented consumer staples and utilities sectors closing lower, along with the energy sector, which was weighed down by crude's inability to recover any of its recent ~15% drop over the last five days. From a points perspective, it was the heavyweight financials and miners that performed the heavy lifting, a very encouraging combination for the bulls.
The ASX 200 finished strongly on Monday, closing back above 8800 despite renewed geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. Financials and materials contributed around 70% of Monday’s gains, although the broader market was stronger than it looked, with much of the real estate sector trading ex-dividend. Healthcare also stood out again, with CSL managing to edge 0.5% higher despite warning it expects to halt new EU patient starts for Tavneos- clearly there's a lot of bad news built into the CSL share price ~$115, suggesting limited downside from here.
Last week saw a sharp reversal across the high-flying semiconductor stocks, many of which had surged around fourfold over the past 12 months. We have already seen in Bitcoin and gold over the past year that crowded enthusiasm can unwind quickly when the mood shifts. Even SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) closed more than 30% below its post-IPO high on Friday.
The ASX200 retreated by -0.7% on Thursday, yet the number of winners and losers was evenly matched. As we’ve touched on a few times this week, the market is going through a “risk-off” period with investors rotating into some of the more defensive and often underperforming names of FY26. If MM is correct and the $A finds support ~69c, the current aggressive profit-taking in the miners could be approaching its conclusion, perhaps in time for the start of FY27.
The ASX 200 rebounded 0.2% on Wednesday as ASX software names benefited from rotation out of Asian chipmakers, on what felt like a first for 2026, with gains the most aggressive where losses have been the steepest: WiseTech Global (+14%) and Xero (+9%). The toughest call at the moment is whether we are seeing some meaningful reversion, or simply ongoing EOFY book squaring.
The ASX200 lost early gains on Tuesday, as tech selling cascaded around the world following SpaceX’s ~16% fall in US trade. Yesterday's sell-off in the semiconductor stocks, some of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI boom, gathered momentum throughout the day, and saw the Korean Kospi close down 10%, with SK Hynix Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. both sliding more than 12%.
The ASX 200 slipped 0.1% on Monday, not a bad performance considering US S&P 500 futures were trading lower, WiseTech (ASX: WTC) was hammered -18% following reports that police were investigating its chair, Richard White, and BHP Group (ASX: BH) fell another ~$1. Fortunately, the banks bucked the trend with all of the “Big Four” closing higher, a potential theme over the coming months, which we touched on in this week's Macro Monday Report.
The Fed may have left interest rates unchanged last week, but its accompanying commentary caught the market napping. Incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting delivered a clear message: inflation remains the enemy, rate cuts are not guaranteed, and investors should continue to expect a data-dependent Fed.
The ASX200 ended its 4-day rally on Thursday, with 65% of the main board closing lower after the US Fed held interest rates in its first meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, but signalled that tightening may be necessary to rein in inflation. It was a relatively muted session for the local bourse with only five stocks moving by more than 5%, although they were all in the losers' corner, primarily from the gold space.
The ASX 200 enjoyed another solid performance on Wednesday, again reversing higher from early weakness to end the session up +0.6%, at a 2-month high and only a few points below the psychological 9000 level. It was a clear “risk on” session with only the defensive-oriented consumer staples and utilities sectors closing lower, along with the energy sector, which was weighed down by crude's inability to recover any of its recent ~15% drop over the last five days. From a points perspective, it was the heavyweight financials and miners that performed the heavy lifting, a very encouraging combination for the bulls.
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