On Monday, Citi joined Macquarie with a “sell call” on the major banks, which saw the sector reverse early gains to close near their intra-day lows, ANZ even slipped into negative territory. There were two major reasons behind their bearish stance:
• Citi believes the valuations of the banks are stretched considering the potential political “attacks on their profits”, i.e. when the RBA starts cutting, they will be forced to follow suit at the expense of profitability.
• Macquarie said to “sell” the banks in mid-March as the sector posted new highs, again a call on valuation grounds; good timing so far!
The cornerstone of Citi's argument is valuation, which could be applied to the whole market when the ASX200 is challenging new all-time highs. Overall, it is an understandable view, but we question if it's a good enough reason to exit the sector, forgoing enticing dividends and potentially incurring capital gains issues after the “Big Four” have run so hard.
Last week’s Bank of Americas Fund Managers Survey showed the market is the most bullish in over two years on the back of the biggest jump in global growth optimism since May 2022 – allocations to stocks and commodities hit a 27-month high, at the expense of bonds, with cash levels falling to 4.2% from 4.4% in the previous month - just shy of the sub-4% level that traditionally signals a contrarian sell indicator for equities according to the BofA Global FMS Cash Rule. Conversely, an increasing number of fund managers now believe gold is the most overpriced since COVID. The most crowded trade recognized by fund managers continues to be the "Long Magnificent 7.” Overall, last week was not the best time for Fund managers!
Through March and April, we discussed how indices were priced for perfection on the interest rate front. Now, as reality sets in, we consider if/when and how we should consider fading this “less dovish” outlook for US rate cuts. Just like squeezing an orange, removing the last 10% of the juice is far more complex than the first 10%, and this is the case for inflation, which has been demonstrated perfectly over recent months. However, arguably the biggest issue for the Fed and other central banks is the inflationary implications of an elevated oil price courtesy of the tensions in the Middle East, an issue well beyond the influence of Jerome Powell et al. The mantra of “higher for longer” concerning rates feels on point at the moment, which has been the subsequent cause of April's weakness in equities.
Yesterday saw Gina Rinehart emerge as a significant player in Lynas (LYC) after taking her stake to almost 6% over the last few days, although compared to her net wealth, the purchases were a poultry drop in the ocean. LYC is the world's largest non-China producer of rare earths, although China still produces almost 70% of the world's rare earths, with Australia's ~5% output more of a supporting role. Gina's move could be largely motivated by her intention to merge US-listed MP Materials (MP US), which has a market cap. of ~$4.3bn, and the local and larger $6bn rare earth player Lynas (LYC), i.e. it would form a relative $10bn rare earth giant.
Earlier in the year, we felt markets were far too optimistic towards rate cuts, i.e. US futures were pricing in three cuts before Christmas, the best possible outcome and even with the Feds rhetoric continually targeting three cuts, the risks of two remained high. Now, we believe things are swinging in the other direction. The market is now pricing in 1.69 cuts by Christmas; at MM, we’re rarely keen to fight the Fed, and we think two cuts remain a strong possibility, as they remain keen to cut at some stage, i.e. markets are now too pessimistic, ultimately good news for rate-sensitive stocks/sectors.
The London Metal Exchange (LME) has banned the delivery of Russian metal following tough sanctions imposed by the US and UK. The LME is a central market for metals such as aluminium, copper, and zinc. If the supply taps are turned off, prices will likely rise as they did overnight, e.g. over 90% of the aluminium on the LME is of Russian origin. However, prices have a tendency, just like water, to move in the path of least resistance and with plenty of buyers still happy to take delivery of Russian metal, by whatever means, advances are likely to be controlled in nature, assuming they do occur.
Iran and a number of its allies launched a large-scale drone and missile attack upon Israel on Saturday night in retaliation for a suspected Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic complex in Syria. The prospects of a full-blown conflict in the region have increased dramatically over the last week, with at least nine countries involved in Saturday's conflict, projectiles fired from Iran, Iraq, Syria and Yemen were downed by Israel, the US and France, as well as Jordan. Following Iran's attack, the U.S. pledged "ironclad" backing for Israel, but President Joe Biden made it clear the US would not participate in any offensive operations against Iran.
As subscribers may have read, NEXTDC (NXT) is tapping the market for $1.3bn; some investors might be tempted to fund the raise by the data centre operator with other ASX tech names, hence today's report. Last night's +1.65% surge by the NASDAQ-100 illustrated there's still plenty of life left in the sector, especially if we do see the Fed and ECB start cutting rates this year. For all of the talk around excessive valuations and sticky inflation, the US tech sector is still less than 1% below its all-time high.
The weakness across the Lithium Sector has lost its place in the financial press due to the strong rallies in copper and gold. Usually, more “clicks” are achieved from bad news and crash-style stories, but the lithium bear market has grown old in the tooth. However, as we’ve seen with other commodities and related stocks, this year is starting to look exciting for the commodity space, and we believe lithium can join the party, at least for a while. We aren’t as bullish towards lithium as copper, for example, with the supply & demand dynamics far from clear, but we can see them enjoying a strong finish to this FY.
Overnight, the influential former Federal Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said he's expecting three rate cuts in 2024 as inflation moves towards the Feds target even while the economy remains resilient, i.e. the “Goldilocks” scenario for stocks. Bullard’s outlook echoed the Fed’s messaging as opposed to the increasing market expectations that two cuts have become more likely than three, e.g. Treasury yields made new highs for the year on Monday night. Mr Bullard is indirectly quoting the old adage of “don’t fight the Fed”. However, it wasn’t the ongoing commentary from the central banker that caught our attention but rather the market’s reaction following the relatively Dovish interview—gold surged over $US30 to another all-time high while bond yields hardly moved. This has been the story of 2024, which has seen gold surge around $US300/oz while bonds have drifted lower (yields higher).
Last week’s Bank of Americas Fund Managers Survey showed the market is the most bullish in over two years on the back of the biggest jump in global growth optimism since May 2022 – allocations to stocks and commodities hit a 27-month high, at the expense of bonds, with cash levels falling to 4.2% from 4.4% in the previous month - just shy of the sub-4% level that traditionally signals a contrarian sell indicator for equities according to the BofA Global FMS Cash Rule. Conversely, an increasing number of fund managers now believe gold is the most overpriced since COVID. The most crowded trade recognized by fund managers continues to be the "Long Magnificent 7.” Overall, last week was not the best time for Fund managers!
Through March and April, we discussed how indices were priced for perfection on the interest rate front. Now, as reality sets in, we consider if/when and how we should consider fading this “less dovish” outlook for US rate cuts. Just like squeezing an orange, removing the last 10% of the juice is far more complex than the first 10%, and this is the case for inflation, which has been demonstrated perfectly over recent months. However, arguably the biggest issue for the Fed and other central banks is the inflationary implications of an elevated oil price courtesy of the tensions in the Middle East, an issue well beyond the influence of Jerome Powell et al. The mantra of “higher for longer” concerning rates feels on point at the moment, which has been the subsequent cause of April's weakness in equities.
Yesterday saw Gina Rinehart emerge as a significant player in Lynas (LYC) after taking her stake to almost 6% over the last few days, although compared to her net wealth, the purchases were a poultry drop in the ocean. LYC is the world's largest non-China producer of rare earths, although China still produces almost 70% of the world's rare earths, with Australia's ~5% output more of a supporting role. Gina's move could be largely motivated by her intention to merge US-listed MP Materials (MP US), which has a market cap. of ~$4.3bn, and the local and larger $6bn rare earth player Lynas (LYC), i.e. it would form a relative $10bn rare earth giant.
Earlier in the year, we felt markets were far too optimistic towards rate cuts, i.e. US futures were pricing in three cuts before Christmas, the best possible outcome and even with the Feds rhetoric continually targeting three cuts, the risks of two remained high. Now, we believe things are swinging in the other direction. The market is now pricing in 1.69 cuts by Christmas; at MM, we’re rarely keen to fight the Fed, and we think two cuts remain a strong possibility, as they remain keen to cut at some stage, i.e. markets are now too pessimistic, ultimately good news for rate-sensitive stocks/sectors.
The London Metal Exchange (LME) has banned the delivery of Russian metal following tough sanctions imposed by the US and UK. The LME is a central market for metals such as aluminium, copper, and zinc. If the supply taps are turned off, prices will likely rise as they did overnight, e.g. over 90% of the aluminium on the LME is of Russian origin. However, prices have a tendency, just like water, to move in the path of least resistance and with plenty of buyers still happy to take delivery of Russian metal, by whatever means, advances are likely to be controlled in nature, assuming they do occur.
Iran and a number of its allies launched a large-scale drone and missile attack upon Israel on Saturday night in retaliation for a suspected Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic complex in Syria. The prospects of a full-blown conflict in the region have increased dramatically over the last week, with at least nine countries involved in Saturday's conflict, projectiles fired from Iran, Iraq, Syria and Yemen were downed by Israel, the US and France, as well as Jordan. Following Iran's attack, the U.S. pledged "ironclad" backing for Israel, but President Joe Biden made it clear the US would not participate in any offensive operations against Iran.
As subscribers may have read, NEXTDC (NXT) is tapping the market for $1.3bn; some investors might be tempted to fund the raise by the data centre operator with other ASX tech names, hence today's report. Last night's +1.65% surge by the NASDAQ-100 illustrated there's still plenty of life left in the sector, especially if we do see the Fed and ECB start cutting rates this year. For all of the talk around excessive valuations and sticky inflation, the US tech sector is still less than 1% below its all-time high.
The weakness across the Lithium Sector has lost its place in the financial press due to the strong rallies in copper and gold. Usually, more “clicks” are achieved from bad news and crash-style stories, but the lithium bear market has grown old in the tooth. However, as we’ve seen with other commodities and related stocks, this year is starting to look exciting for the commodity space, and we believe lithium can join the party, at least for a while. We aren’t as bullish towards lithium as copper, for example, with the supply & demand dynamics far from clear, but we can see them enjoying a strong finish to this FY.
Overnight, the influential former Federal Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said he's expecting three rate cuts in 2024 as inflation moves towards the Feds target even while the economy remains resilient, i.e. the “Goldilocks” scenario for stocks. Bullard’s outlook echoed the Fed’s messaging as opposed to the increasing market expectations that two cuts have become more likely than three, e.g. Treasury yields made new highs for the year on Monday night. Mr Bullard is indirectly quoting the old adage of “don’t fight the Fed”. However, it wasn’t the ongoing commentary from the central banker that caught our attention but rather the market’s reaction following the relatively Dovish interview—gold surged over $US30 to another all-time high while bond yields hardly moved. This has been the story of 2024, which has seen gold surge around $US300/oz while bonds have drifted lower (yields higher).
