The lithium trade has lost its mojo in the last few months, but we believe the demand side of the equation remains healthy for lithium as battery energy storage emerges as a 2nd pillar of lithium demand alongside EVs, driven by AI data centres and rising global investment in storage.
As we flagged in June, lithium supply is continuing to grow, with analysts divided on when the market will return to deficit—some expect 2026–27, while others don't see it until 2030. At MM, we remain bullish on the long-term structural drivers supporting spodumene and believe prices can ultimately move well above their 2026 highs. However, after the sector's strong gains over the past 12 months, this current pullback is understandable.
Equities have been volatile through 2025–26, unsettled by both the Liberation Day tariff shock and the US-Iran conflict, yet despite the relentless headlines, the ASX 200 has gained less than 1% since the start of 2025. However, on the stock and sector level in particular, volatility has been even more pronounced due to the combination of increased leverage and crowded positioning:
July has seen a tale of two halves for ETF flows: The month began with a sharp risk-off rotation as investors cut exposure to technology and AI, with the Nasdaq tracking QQQ losing ~US$11.5bn over four consecutive sessions, the S&P 500 tracking IVV shedding ~US$1.7bn, and software ETFs also suffering heavy redemptions. The standout exception was semiconductors, where SOXX attracted a record US$3.4bn in the week to 10 July, while US-listed ETFs remain on track for a record US$2tn of inflows in 2026.
The ASX 200 has now rallied from early losses to close near its highs for five consecutive sessions, after recovering an early 50-point deficit on Tuesday to end the session flat. The miners bounced strongly to close higher despite crude oil trading ~5% higher, with Evolution Mining (+3.2%), South32 (+2%), Regis Resources (+2%), Sandfire (+1.5%), and BHP Group (+0.6%) catching our eye as a slow but steady bid tone surfaced across the gold and copper names. These miners were helped by a recovery in gold (+0.5%) and copper (+1.5%) during our trading session as the $US edged lower ahead of the important US CPI inflation data.
The ASX 200 has now rallied from early losses to close near its highs for four straight sessions, a classic hallmark of a market with strong underlying buying support. The banks helped the market close higher on Monday, despite 60% of the main board closing lower, but overall it was a fairly lacklustre session considering the fresh US-Iran fighting, which sent US stock and bond futures lower as oil pushed back towards US$80/barrel. Again, we ignored sharp losses across the semiconductor space in Asia, but that’s no major surprise, given the dearth of major AI stocks on the ASX. Unfortunately, news out of the Middle East continued to deteriorate overnight:
Last week we saw renewed fighting in the Middle East, with Iran declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed "until further notice" on Saturday, stating no vessels would be permitted to pass until foreign interference ends. Last week, Crude oil spiked around 8% following the escalation in tensions, although it did surrender some of the gains as the week wore on. However, despite the geopolitical uncertainty, global equities shrugged off the fighting, with the Dow making new all-time highs and the MSCI World Index closing less than 0.5% below its same milestone.
US-listed ETFs attracted more than US$1 trillion in inflows during 1H26, the quickest time the industry has ever reached the impressive milestone. However, the rally was highly concentrated, with around 800 ETFs attracting little or no investor flows. To put these numbers into perspective, the US ETF industry has grown to ~US$19 trillion in AUM as of early 2026, with over 3,000 listed ETFs in the US market.
The ASX 200 continues to ride the volatile rollercoaster it's been aboard for well over 400-days. Last week the local market looked destined for new all-time highs following triple-digit gains on Friday, close on the heels of a strong performance on the Thursday. This morning we're sitting at our desks contemplating what's next after President Trump declared the ceasefire with “scum” Iran is over; we knew he wasn’t happy following the USA’s debacle of an exit from the World Cup, but we didn’t think global tensions would escalate in just a matter of hours. The news is already sounding so familiar to much of the last quarter:
The ASX200 fell away on Tuesday, finishing the soft session down 0.3% as further weakness in the miners offset a resurgence by the influential banks. While the gold and lithium names dominated the losers' enclosure from a performance perspective, it was the heavyweights in the materials sector that weighed on the index, with BHP Group (ASX: BHP), Northern Star (ASX: NST) and Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN) hitting the index by more than 0.3% on their own.
Equities have been volatile through 2025–26, unsettled by both the Liberation Day tariff shock and the US-Iran conflict, yet despite the relentless headlines, the ASX 200 has gained less than 1% since the start of 2025. However, on the stock and sector level in particular, volatility has been even more pronounced due to the combination of increased leverage and crowded positioning:
July has seen a tale of two halves for ETF flows: The month began with a sharp risk-off rotation as investors cut exposure to technology and AI, with the Nasdaq tracking QQQ losing ~US$11.5bn over four consecutive sessions, the S&P 500 tracking IVV shedding ~US$1.7bn, and software ETFs also suffering heavy redemptions. The standout exception was semiconductors, where SOXX attracted a record US$3.4bn in the week to 10 July, while US-listed ETFs remain on track for a record US$2tn of inflows in 2026.
The ASX 200 has now rallied from early losses to close near its highs for five consecutive sessions, after recovering an early 50-point deficit on Tuesday to end the session flat. The miners bounced strongly to close higher despite crude oil trading ~5% higher, with Evolution Mining (+3.2%), South32 (+2%), Regis Resources (+2%), Sandfire (+1.5%), and BHP Group (+0.6%) catching our eye as a slow but steady bid tone surfaced across the gold and copper names. These miners were helped by a recovery in gold (+0.5%) and copper (+1.5%) during our trading session as the $US edged lower ahead of the important US CPI inflation data.
The ASX 200 has now rallied from early losses to close near its highs for four straight sessions, a classic hallmark of a market with strong underlying buying support. The banks helped the market close higher on Monday, despite 60% of the main board closing lower, but overall it was a fairly lacklustre session considering the fresh US-Iran fighting, which sent US stock and bond futures lower as oil pushed back towards US$80/barrel. Again, we ignored sharp losses across the semiconductor space in Asia, but that’s no major surprise, given the dearth of major AI stocks on the ASX. Unfortunately, news out of the Middle East continued to deteriorate overnight:
Last week we saw renewed fighting in the Middle East, with Iran declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed "until further notice" on Saturday, stating no vessels would be permitted to pass until foreign interference ends. Last week, Crude oil spiked around 8% following the escalation in tensions, although it did surrender some of the gains as the week wore on. However, despite the geopolitical uncertainty, global equities shrugged off the fighting, with the Dow making new all-time highs and the MSCI World Index closing less than 0.5% below its same milestone.
US-listed ETFs attracted more than US$1 trillion in inflows during 1H26, the quickest time the industry has ever reached the impressive milestone. However, the rally was highly concentrated, with around 800 ETFs attracting little or no investor flows. To put these numbers into perspective, the US ETF industry has grown to ~US$19 trillion in AUM as of early 2026, with over 3,000 listed ETFs in the US market.
The ASX 200 continues to ride the volatile rollercoaster it's been aboard for well over 400-days. Last week the local market looked destined for new all-time highs following triple-digit gains on Friday, close on the heels of a strong performance on the Thursday. This morning we're sitting at our desks contemplating what's next after President Trump declared the ceasefire with “scum” Iran is over; we knew he wasn’t happy following the USA’s debacle of an exit from the World Cup, but we didn’t think global tensions would escalate in just a matter of hours. The news is already sounding so familiar to much of the last quarter:
The ASX200 fell away on Tuesday, finishing the soft session down 0.3% as further weakness in the miners offset a resurgence by the influential banks. While the gold and lithium names dominated the losers' enclosure from a performance perspective, it was the heavyweights in the materials sector that weighed on the index, with BHP Group (ASX: BHP), Northern Star (ASX: NST) and Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN) hitting the index by more than 0.3% on their own.
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