Market Matters Report / Market Matters Weekend Report - Saturday 13th June 2015

By Market Matters 13 June 15

Market Matters Weekend Report - Saturday 13th June 2015

Market Matters Weekend Report - Saturday 13th June 2015

Afternoon All

Last week was very quiet, trading in just over a 100-point range, compared to the 300 point plunge of the previous week. We have now experienced the 100-point bounce in the ASX200 that I was anticipating, unfortunately I am now a little 50-50 on the markets short term direction. I spend my Saturday morning trawling through numerous charts / news articles and company comments looking for both trading and investing ideas. Sometimes this research generates so many plans that my largest decision is how to allocate cash across the relevant positions, at other times like now I'm planning how, or if, to play with the crumbs of ideas that have been generated. I thought I would list some of my observations so subscribers can follow my thoughts today. The market / sector views below are a touch unclear / contradictory at present but markets have a habit of returning clarity very quickly:

1. ASX200 - 50/50 just here but the important banking Index looks oversold. Longer term i am still targeting ~5200.

2. I still believe the US share market will fall ~10-15% this year but my "Gut Feel" is one final high is required.

3. European Indices are very skittish as they watch Greece carefully but the main Asian markets remain strong.

4. After going sideways for around 10 weeks the Australian resource stocks remain boring.

5. I'm watching gold stocks carefully, Regis Resources is close to a technical buy but Newcrest is neutral. A failed spike lower in gold would not surprise and this may trigger me into buying RRL.

6. The Australian banks have reached excellent fundamental / technical and yield support - 5-6% fully franked yield compared to an official RBA Interest rates of 2%.

7. I do believe Australian banks are likely to go lower in 2015 but the current bounce looks likely to have more in it.

8. Wesfarmers and Woolworths remain bearish but they are likely to have experienced ~75% of their anticipated fall.

9. Telco stocks are solid at current levels with MTU generating good buy signals for a 10% gain.

10. The Retail Sector looks ready to potentially breakout, I am watching Myer under $1.28 to potentially buy some speculative calls.

11. The Healthcare stocks are pulling back nicely.


Clarifying potential stocks on my likely shopping List for coming months.

· Investing - ANN, ANZ, AMC, CBA, CGF, CSL, MQG, MTU, RHC, SEK and TLS.

· Trading - MYR and RRL.

Any subscribers not familiar with codes or companies can do some quick checking on the ASX website: http://www.asx.com.au/ - See charts of all below.

Summary:

No major change here:

1. I will remain patient on further purchases but I now have my buyer hat in place.

2. I continue to have no interest investing in the resources sector.


* Watch out for alerts.

What Matters this week

The ASX200 looks likely to open down 20 points on Tuesday.


Potential Investing opportunities for the coming week

· Hopefully investors are now sitting on a healthy cash position awaiting buying opportunities – see above.

· MTU looks solid for a +10% gain for short term investors.

Potential Trading for the coming week

· Short term I am unsure after anticipated 100 point bounce.

· For aggressive traders / investors I am watching Myer (MYR) and Regis Resources (RRL) closely into fresh 2015 lows.



Portfolio Holdings

My portfolio matched the market last week where the ASX200 rose 0.74%.


1. Bank of Queensland (BOQ) +0.8% - medium term investment.

2. Commonwealth Bank (CBA) +1.1% - long term Investment.

3. Mirvac (MGR) -1% - medium term investment.

4. Vocus (VOC) +1% - Medium term investment.


Cash for future purchases, ~35%.

Australian ASX200

I continue to look to spread my portfolio into more growth and offshore earning stocks going forward but importantly patiently.

Chart 1 – ASX200 Monthly Chart

Chart 2 – ASX200 Weekly Chart

Chart 3 – ASX200 Daily Chart

Chart 4 - SPI (Share Price Index) Futures 60 mins Chart

Chart 5 ASX200 REIT Index Monthly Chart

Chart 5b ASX200 Banking Index Monthly Chart

Chart 6 Volatility Index VIX Weekly Chart

Chart 7a – The US 10-year Interest Rate Quarterly Chart

Chart 7b – The German 10-year Interest Rate Quarterly Chart


American Equities

The American indices continue to show signs of topping out for 2015.

Chart 8 – Dow Jones Index Monthly Chart

Chart 9 – Dow Jones Index Daily Chart

Chart 10 – S&P500 Monthly Chart

Chart 11 – NYSE Composite Index Monthly Chart

Chart 12 – Russell 2000 Index Monthly Chart

Chart 13 – NASDAQ Monthly Chart

Chart 14 – The Canadian Composite Index Monthly Chart


European Indices

European Indices still look have the potential to rally another 2-3% aided by ECB stimulus but Friday was surprisingly weak.

Chart 15 – Euro Stoxx 50 Weekly Chart

Chart 16 – FTSE Weekly Chart

Chart 17 – Spanish IBEX Monthly Chart

Chart 18 – German DAX Monthly Chart

Chart 19 – German DAX Daily Chart

 

Asian Indices

Asian indices are very bullish at present, led by China as it opens its market to offshore investors, Japan is still receiving great strength from ongoing aggressive QE.

Chart 20 – Hang Seng Weekly Chart

Chart 21 – China Shanghai Composite Monthly Chart

Chart 22 – Japanese Nikkei 225 Monthly Chart


Australian Stocks

Quality stocks with sustainable yield have been standouts but some industrial stocks are now looking better. I no longer am a net seller of the “yield play” after its 15% correction and looking to buy growth / yield stocks BUT not resources.

Chart 23 – BHP (US) Monthly Chart

Chart 24 – BHP Weekly Chart

Chart 25 – Woodside (WPL) Monthly Chart

Chart 25b – Santos (STO) Weekly Chart

Chart 26 – RIO Tinto (RIO) Weekly Chart

Chart 27 – Fortescue Metals (FMG) Weekly Chart

Chart 28 – Vale (US) Weekly Chart

Chart 29 – Newcrest Mining (NCM) Monthly Chart

Chart 30 – Regis Resources (RRL) Weekly Chart

Chart 31 – Barrick Gold Corp. (US) Monthly Chart

Chart 32 – CBA Quarterly Chart

Chart 32b – CBA Daily Chart

Chart 33 – ANZ Bank (ANZ) Monthly Chart

Chart 33b – ANZ Bank (ANZ) Daily Chart

Chart 34 – Westpac Bank (WBC) Weekly Chart

Chart 34b – Westpac Bank (WBC) Daily Chart

Chart 35 – National Bank (NAB) Weekly Chart

Chart 36 – Macquarie Bank (MQG) Monthly Chart

Chart 37 – Bank of Queensland (BOQ) Weekly Chart

Chart 38 – AMP Weekly Chart

Chart 39 – Challenger Financial (CGF) Monthly Chart

Chart 40 – Suncorp Group (SUN) Monthly Chart

Chart 41 – Insurance Australia (IAG) Monthly Chart

Chart 42 – QBE Insurance Monthly Chart

Chart 43 – Wesfarmers Ltd (WES) Weekly Chart

Chart 44 – Woolworths Ltd (WOW) Quarterly Chart

Chart 45 – Seek Ltd (SEK) Monthly Chart

Chart 46 – Telstra (TLS) Monthly Chart

Chart 47– M2 Group Ltd (MTU) Monthly Chart

Chart 48 – Vocus Communications (VOC) Weekly Chart

Chart 48b – TPG Telecom (TPM) Monthly Chart

Chart 49 – Westfield Corp. (WFD) Monthly Chart

Chart 50– CSL Ltd (CSL) Monthly Chart

Chart 51 Ramsay Healthcare (RHC) Monthly Chart

Chart 52– Resmed (RMD) Weekly Chart

Chart 53 - Ansell (ANN) Monthly Chart

Chart 54 – Amcor Ltd (AMC) Monthly

Chart 55 – Crown Resorts (CWN) Monthly

Chart 56– Myer Holdings (MYR) Weekly

Chart 57– JB Hifi (JBH) Monthly

Chart 58– Harvey Norman (HVN) Monthly

Chart 59– Australian Dollar (AUD) Weekly Chart

The $A continues to decline with an ultimate technical target now well under 70c.

Commodities

I am now neutral Gold as rising interest rates could easily derail the recent strength. I have divergence with the stocks and precious metal.

Copper remains very negative on a longer term basis, a very similar chart pattern to Newcrest Mining (NCM) and unfortunately we all saw what happened there.

Crude Oil has bounced as anticipated; I still expect renewed weakness over coming months.

Iron Ore is 50-50 here BUT the trend is clearly down and long term futures remain bearish.


Chart 60 – Gold Monthly Chart

Chart 61 – Copper Monthly Chart

Chart 62 – Crude Oil Monthly Chart

Chart 63 – Iron Ore Monthly Chart


Please note this is my personal TECHNICAL opinion of markets and "General Advice" taking no account of individual’s circumstances.

Have a great week,

MarketMatters Team


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The author holds an interest in the financial products of BOQ, CBA, MGR, and VOC.