The ASX 200 ended a choppy session on Thursday down 0.2% with reporting again weighing on the index, although losses were fairly muted considering only 30% of the main board closed higher, and Commonwealth Bank (CBA) fell by over 2%. Yesterday saw the banks put in a very mixed performance, with ANZ adding ~16 points to the index while CBA more than offset the good work, taking over 20 points off the ASX 200. It was a refreshing change to see ANZ rally post its result, with the bank less exposed than CBA and Westpac to the current housing slowdown.
The ASX 200 struggled on Wednesday as reporting season weighed on sentiment and the index; it's only early days, but we’re seeing a very different story emerge locally compared to the recent season in the US. The S&P 500's 2Q26 earnings season is essentially complete and has been strong, while the ASX 200's August reporting season has only just begun, but with less than 10% of companies having faced the music, the early signs are not overly encouraging.
The ASX 200 advanced +0.2% on Tuesday, supported by the RBA leaving rates unchanged, as was expected. The accompanying rhetoric from Michelle Bullock also contained no hidden surprises, with the bond & FX markets hardly moving bar a brief relief spike when no hike was announced. The RBA remains understandably cautious as they weigh a soft property market versus sticky inflation. However, credit markets are slowly but surely painting a more supportive picture for stocks.
The ASX 200 erased some of its late-morning losses on Monday to finish the session down just 0.3%, not a great performance after US indices powered higher on Friday night, with the banks again the local bourse's Achilles' heel. Such was the influence of the banking sector that even though over 55% of the main board closed higher, the index still fell by more than 30 points as a strong resources sector couldn’t offset steep losses by Westpac (WBC) and others.
The US labour market appears to have “rolled over”, with July non-farm payrolls unexpectedly falling by 23,000 and the previous two months revised down by a combined 103,000 jobs. Wage growth also eased to 3.15%, its slowest pace in almost three years, reinforcing the view that inflationary pressures are gradually subsiding. Credit markets responded by scaling back expectations for a September Fed rate hike, with this week's US CPI report now looming as the next key event required to reinforce the less hawkish outlook.
The ASX 200 surged another +0.9% on Wednesday, taking the index well above 9200 for the first time; so much for Liberation Day tariffs, sticky inflation, falling house prices, and the US-Iran War. Gains were broad-based, with more than 75% of the main board advancing as the local market finally punched to new highs; it's only taken 110 trading sessions! A rampant resources market offset weakness in the banks, with BHP on its own contributing 40% of the day's 82-point advance. We don’t want to jinx the local index, but after advancing +5.6% from its intra-day low 9-trading days ago, as we said at the end of July: “We wouldn’t be short for quids.”
The ASX 200 delivered a stellar albeit surprising performance for the second consecutive Tuesday; this time it was an exceptional triple-digit gain that took the index to a fresh 5-month high, and within 1% of a new record. Interestingly, the SPI futures volume was average, implying gains were driven more by a lack of selling to meet the increased risk appetite than aggressive buying. The bears should be getting uncomfortable on several fronts, and we thought it worth highlighting the pertinent comment we made in yesterday afternoon. “The Match Out Report”:
The ASX 200 erased early losses on Monday to start August on the front foot, closing up +0.5%, back above the psychological 9000 level. Gains were broad-based, with fewer than 30% of ASX stocks closing lower. Just as importantly, selling pressure was limited; the day's worst performer, Fortescue (FMG), fell only 3.8%, while six stocks rallied more than 5%, highlighting the market's underlying strength.
Despite a volatile month, the ASX 200 ended July up +2.3%, delivering almost exactly its average return over the past 20 years as the market heads into August. As we all know, there are “lies, damned lies, and statistics”, but keeping it simple, as the chart below illustrates, July is usually a very strong month for the local index:
The ASX 200 struggled on Wednesday as reporting season weighed on sentiment and the index; it's only early days, but we’re seeing a very different story emerge locally compared to the recent season in the US. The S&P 500's 2Q26 earnings season is essentially complete and has been strong, while the ASX 200's August reporting season has only just begun, but with less than 10% of companies having faced the music, the early signs are not overly encouraging.
The ASX 200 advanced +0.2% on Tuesday, supported by the RBA leaving rates unchanged, as was expected. The accompanying rhetoric from Michelle Bullock also contained no hidden surprises, with the bond & FX markets hardly moving bar a brief relief spike when no hike was announced. The RBA remains understandably cautious as they weigh a soft property market versus sticky inflation. However, credit markets are slowly but surely painting a more supportive picture for stocks.
The ASX 200 erased some of its late-morning losses on Monday to finish the session down just 0.3%, not a great performance after US indices powered higher on Friday night, with the banks again the local bourse's Achilles' heel. Such was the influence of the banking sector that even though over 55% of the main board closed higher, the index still fell by more than 30 points as a strong resources sector couldn’t offset steep losses by Westpac (WBC) and others.
The US labour market appears to have “rolled over”, with July non-farm payrolls unexpectedly falling by 23,000 and the previous two months revised down by a combined 103,000 jobs. Wage growth also eased to 3.15%, its slowest pace in almost three years, reinforcing the view that inflationary pressures are gradually subsiding. Credit markets responded by scaling back expectations for a September Fed rate hike, with this week's US CPI report now looming as the next key event required to reinforce the less hawkish outlook.
The ASX 200 surged another +0.9% on Wednesday, taking the index well above 9200 for the first time; so much for Liberation Day tariffs, sticky inflation, falling house prices, and the US-Iran War. Gains were broad-based, with more than 75% of the main board advancing as the local market finally punched to new highs; it's only taken 110 trading sessions! A rampant resources market offset weakness in the banks, with BHP on its own contributing 40% of the day's 82-point advance. We don’t want to jinx the local index, but after advancing +5.6% from its intra-day low 9-trading days ago, as we said at the end of July: “We wouldn’t be short for quids.”
The ASX 200 delivered a stellar albeit surprising performance for the second consecutive Tuesday; this time it was an exceptional triple-digit gain that took the index to a fresh 5-month high, and within 1% of a new record. Interestingly, the SPI futures volume was average, implying gains were driven more by a lack of selling to meet the increased risk appetite than aggressive buying. The bears should be getting uncomfortable on several fronts, and we thought it worth highlighting the pertinent comment we made in yesterday afternoon. “The Match Out Report”:
The ASX 200 erased early losses on Monday to start August on the front foot, closing up +0.5%, back above the psychological 9000 level. Gains were broad-based, with fewer than 30% of ASX stocks closing lower. Just as importantly, selling pressure was limited; the day's worst performer, Fortescue (FMG), fell only 3.8%, while six stocks rallied more than 5%, highlighting the market's underlying strength.
Despite a volatile month, the ASX 200 ended July up +2.3%, delivering almost exactly its average return over the past 20 years as the market heads into August. As we all know, there are “lies, damned lies, and statistics”, but keeping it simple, as the chart below illustrates, July is usually a very strong month for the local index:
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