26 May 19
Market Matters Weekend Report Sunday 26th May 2019
26 May 19
Market Matters Weekend Report Sunday 26th May 2019
24 May 19
Trade concerns force some profit taking
24 May 19
Is it time to follow the market back into Consumer Discretionary stocks? (ALL, HVN, SGR, BAP, FLT, AHG, APE)
23 May 19
ASX comes off the boil after a stellar run (ALL, TRS, CSR)
23 May 19
Do we agree with UBS on the downgrade of some Platform providers? (AMP, IFL)
22 May 19
Local market grinds higher but financial services are left behind (BIN, AMP, IFL)
22 May 19
Income Report: 4 post-election income opportunities
22 May 19
Weekly Overseas Report - is it time for Australia or International exposure? (FB US, AAPL US, AMNZ US, NFLX US, GOOGL US)
21 May 19
APRA & the RBA help the local market shrug soft leads (LYC, HLS)
21 May 19
What a difference an election makes, what now? (NHF, WBC, NAB, EHL, WEB, TCG LN, SYD)
Yesterday we saw no rate cut by the RBA and it felt like more than the touted ~30% of players were looking for a cut - immediately following the announcement we saw the $A surge 0.5c and the ASX200 tumble 40-points. The stock market selling appeared to be more SPI futures led as opposed to being sector specific with the Resources sector performing the best rallying +1.3% while the Industrials and Financials had the worst of things both falling -0.3%, by the days end the ASX200 closed up a mere +02% providing little insight to investors in the short-term.
Overall with the Federal election only 10-days away and the US-China trade talks reaching their last furlong the RBA opted for the wait and see approach – hey after 32 meetings of leaving interest rates unchanged at their lowest level in history what’s one more meeting of inaction!
We are now well into May and the US stocks are exhibiting classic volatility for this time of year, and this morning we have woke to see the Dow off close to 500-points / 1.8% while the VIX (Fear Index) gauge of volatility has spiked 25%. It’s all about US – China trade talks as President Trump has put the cat amongst the proverbial pigeons, a snapshot update:
1 – Trump has threatened huge tariff increase on Friday.
2 – A smaller than initially intended Chinese delegation now arrives in the US on Thursday.
3 – It feels suddenly extremely unlikely that a deal / compromise can be implemented in time to avoid Trumps tariffs hence the plunge by US stocks overnight.
Conclusion is investors should expect further volatility in the days / weeks ahead as both economic superpowers struggle to negotiate a deal which looks / feels like a win to their people at home – markets don’t enjoy ego and brinkmanship by influential political leaders.
MM believes current weakness in stocks is a buying opportunity in cyclical areas like the resources as opposed to defensive plays such as healthcare.
Overnight the US indices were sold off aggressively with the broad based S&P500 closing down -1.65% but it did manage to bounce 0.8% from its intra-day low. The SPI futures are calling the ASX200 to open down around 40-points this morning with BHP looking fairly resilient only falling 30c below its local close in the US.
Today we are going to look at 5 overseas stocks that have moved noticeably since President Trump has again started his Tweet campaign – this may present an ideal opportunity to commence publishing MM’s International Portfolio!
Following Mondays alert to buy Fortescue Metals (FMG) with a limit of $7.10 the stock surged over 6% yesterday – we hope subscribers ignored our limit and paid a few cents more – how frustrating the low was at $7.11. We remain bullish FMG and are still considering buying the iron ore miner but we are reticent to chase strength with the space / stock becoming very news driven around Vale’s production in Brazil. However volatility in the US may offer an opportunity in the near future.
MM remains bullish FMG targeting fresh 2019 highs.
Fortescue Metals (FMG) Chart
On Monday President Trump’s Tweet led to aggressive selling in equities across Asia while some monies flowed into safe havens especially the $US which not surprisingly sent the $A back under 70c BUT in our opinion the “little Aussie battler” held up pretty well only falling ~0.4%. However when we saw the RBA stay put on interest rates the $A actually shot up to fresh weekly highs – who cares about the “big bad Trump”!
If the $A can hold onto the psychological 70c area it will confirm to us that its gaining strength around these decade lows.
MM mains bullish the $A into 2019 / 2020 initially targeting a break above 80c.
NB This both technical and fundamental view is not precise / pedantic enough not to allow another spike down towards the mid 60c region.
Australian Dollar ($A) Chart
Five standout overseas stocks over the last week.
With only 6 stocks in the world’s largest 100 companies closing in the black over the last 24-hours this morning we have focused primarily on the weaker end of town as we regard the current stock market weakness to be a buying opportunity especially in the cyclical stocks. We have briefly looked at 5 stocks most importantly sharing where ideally we are buyers.
The chart below illustrates how the current pullback in US stocks hardly registers on the 2019 scoreboard.
NASADAQ Index Chart
1 DowDuPont (DWDP US) $US193.40
Overnight DWDP made fresh 18-month lows as it continued with its recent market underperformance – at MM we would rather buy strong stocks that correct with the masses as opposed to businesses with clear structural issues.
MM feels this is a stock to avoid.
DowDuPont Inc (DWDP US) Chart
2 Alibaba (BABA US) $US181.43.
Overnight BABA fell almost $US7 and the shares are approaching levels we would like to become buyers. Bigger picture we remain bullish targeting a fresh break of its 2018 highs.
MM likes BABA around $US175.
Alibaba (BABA US) Chart
3 Salesforce (CRM US) $US156.90
Overnight Salesforce fell over $US5 but it needs to be closer to the $US145 before the risk / reward becomes appealing to us.
MM likes CRM around $US145.
Salesforce Inc (CRM US) Chart
4 LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (MC FP) Eur335.05
Overnight luxury brand business LVMH fell over Eur9, we like the stock moving into 2019 but after its strong rally entry levels are more important than ever – we like the concept of accumulating between Eur320 and Eur330.
MM likes LVMH between Eur320& Eur330.
LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (MC FP) Chart
5 Apple (AAPL US) $US202.86
Apple fell almost 3% last night which is encouraging because we like the stock into weakness with a target potentially 20% higher. Ideally we would look to buy in 2 tranches, on weakness below $US200 with the optimum price closer to $US190.
MM likes Apple below $US200.
Apple (APPL US) Chart
Of the 5 stocks we looked at today Apple and Alibaba are the most appealing a few % lower as we look to buy this unfolding market correction.
US stocks were weak overnight following our short-term roadmap lower but we reiterate we are buyers of weakness, ideally ~5% lower.
With both the S&P500 and tech based NASDAQ recently reaching fresh 2019 highs we have turned mildly neutral / negative US stocks very short-term.
US Russell 2000 Chart
No change with European indices with BREXIT gaining an extension it’s again become yesterday’s “fish and chip paper”, we remain cautious or even slightly bearish in this region.
German DAX Chart
Overnight Market Matters Wrap
· The US sold off overnight as the US-China trade wars reconvene, with the broader S&P 500 losing 1.65% and the tech heavy Nasdaq 100 off nearly 2%.
· The VIX index (measure of volatility) crept has now crept up above ultra-low complacency, currently at 19.32.
· Today, the resource sector is expected to underperform the broader market, with BHP down an equivalent of -0.82% in the US from Australia’s previous close, following a lawsuit in UK over its 2015 Brazil dam disaster.
· The June SPI Futures is indicating the ASX 200 to open 50 points lower, testing the 6260 level this morning.
Have a great day!
James & the Market Matters Team
Market Matters may hold stocks mentioned in this report. Subscribers can view a full list of holdings on the website by clicking here. Positions are updated each Friday, or after the session when positions are traded.
All figures contained from sources believed to be accurate. Market Matters does not make any representation of warranty as to the accuracy of the figures and disclaims any liability resulting from any inaccuracy. Prices as at 08/05/2019
Reports and other documents published on this website and email (‘Reports’) are authored by Market Matters and the reports represent the views of Market Matters. The MarketMatters Report is based on technical analysis of companies, commodities and the market in general. Technical analysis focuses on interpreting charts and other data to determine what the market sentiment about a particular financial product is, or will be. Unlike fundamental analysis, it does not involve a detailed review of the company’s financial position.
The Reports contain general, as opposed to personal, advice. That means they are prepared for multiple distributions without consideration of your investment objectives, financial situation and needs (‘Personal Circumstances’). Accordingly, any advice given is not a recommendation that a particular course of action is suitable for you and the advice is therefore not to be acted on as investment advice. You must assess whether or not any advice is appropriate for your Personal Circumstances before making any investment decisions. You can either make this assessment yourself, or if you require a personal recommendation, you can seek the assistance of a financial advisor. Market Matters or its author(s) accepts no responsibility for any losses or damages resulting from decisions made from or because of information within this publication. Investing and trading in financial products are always risky, so you should do your own research before buying or selling a financial product.
The Reports are published by Market Matters in good faith based on the facts known to it at the time of their preparation and do not purport to contain all relevant information with respect to the financial products to which they relate. Although the Reports are based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, Market Matters does not make any representation or warranty that they are accurate, complete or up to date and Market Matters accepts no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in the Reports. Market Matters may publish content sourced from external content providers.
If you rely on a Report, you do so at your own risk. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Any projections are estimates only and may not be realised in the future. Except to the extent that liability under any law cannot be excluded, Market Matters disclaims liability for all loss or damage arising as a result of any opinion, advice, recommendation, representation or information expressly or impliedly published in or in relation to this report not withstanding any error or omission including negligence.
Financial Services Guide
Date prepared: Wednesday, 22 November 2017
Last update: Friday, 23rd April 2019
About this Financial Services Guide (FSG)
This FSG provides you with key information about a range of subscription services offered by:
Marketmatters Pty Ltd (Market Matters) Australian Financial Services Licence No. 488798 ABN (20 137 462 536)
Level 29, Chifley Tower, 2 Chifley Square Sydney 2000
T: 1300 301 868
E: [email protected]
In this FSG, “we”, us” and “our” refer to Market Matters.
Market Matters holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 488798 (AFSL) and is responsible for any financial services that we provide to you.
This AFSL was issued on 8th September 2016.
The purpose of this FSG is to provide you with information about:
Market Matters operates a website, www.marketmatters.com.au (Website), where customers may, for the payment of a subscription fee, access certain financial information and general advice. In particular, the Website provides:
This FSG relates only to the Website Services.
What financial services we can offer in connection with the Website Services
As holder of AFSL number 488798, in connection with the Website Services we are authorised to provide general financial product advice to both retail and wholesale clients in relation to the following financial products:
The Website Services are comprised of general advice only. That is, none of the advice given on the Website or by provision of the Website Services takes into account any of your objectives, financial situation or needs (Your Personal Circumstances). Before acting on any of the information, advice or Website Services, you must consider the appropriateness of this information in light of Your Personal Circumstances and, if necessary, consult a financial adviser before making any investment decision.
If you are seeking to acquire a specific financial product or security, you should obtain a copy of and consider the Product Disclosure Statement or Prospectus for that product before making any investment decision.
The Website does not provide a trading platform or access to a trading platform. There is no ability to purchase or sell financial products through the Website.
How do I access these services?
You can access these services by going to www.marketmatters.com.au and following the prompts and steps required to sign up for membership. Please read all terms and conditions carefully.
Fees and benefits payable to us and our associates
The Website is a subscription-based service. A yearly fixed subscription fee is payable to Market Matters when you subscribe to the Website which will vary depending on the type of subscription for which you subscribe. At the date of this FSG, the yearly subscription fees are as follows:
Platinum: $1,238 for 12 months
Platinum: $1,993 for 24 months
Subscription fees vary from time to time and are provided on the Website.
The Website does not currently feature third party advertising. Market Matters reserve the right to advertise at a future time for which they may receive remuneration. Any such advertising will be independent of any other content on the Website.
All representatives of Market Matters (Market Matters Staff) receive a salary paid by Market Matters. Market Matters Staff may also receive performance-based bonuses which are based on profitability, the number of subscribers and subscription renewal rates.
How do we manage potential conflicts of interest?
Market Matters have implemented policies and procedures to mitigate the risk of conflicts of interest. These include:
Market Matters Staff and Contributors are encouraged to express independent views and opinions on the topics they write about. This is established through ongoing training, external audits and our conflict of interest and staff trading policies. Market Matters Staff are required to serve the best interests of the subscribers, without consideration of any commercial or personal interests.
How is my personal information dealt with?
If you have a complaint about our services, you should take the following steps:
Contact us and discuss the complaint directly. If you do not feel comfortable discussing the complaint with us or your complaint is not satisfactorily resolved within 2 business days, please telephone Market Matters, on 1300 301 868 and ask to speak with the Complaints Officer. We suggest you put your complaint in writing at this time so that the issues are fully documented and understood by the parties. Your complaint should be addressed to:
The Complaints Officer
Level 29, Chifley Tower,
2 Chifley Square Sydney NSW 2000
Market Matters will review your complaint within 45 days and attempt resolution. If you are still not satisfied with the outcome, you may take your complaint to an external dispute resolution scheme. Market Matters is a member of the scheme operated by the Financial Ombudsman Service. You should write to:Australian Financial Complaints Authority Limited (AFCA)
You may also wish to consult ASIC in relation to your complaint. ASIC’s website contains information on complaining about companies and people and describes the types of complaints handled by ASIC. You can contact ASIC on its free call infoline:
Tel: 1300 300 630 or email [email protected]
We maintain professional indemnity insurance to cover our employees and Authorised Representatives (including us) for the financial services they provide, having regard to the following:
If you require further information about these compensation arrangements please contact us.
Terms and Conditions
This website, www.marketmatters.com.au, is published by Marketmatters Pty Limited (ABN 20 137 462 536) ('Market Matters', 'MM', 'us', 'we', 'our') Australian Financial Services Licence 488798
Financial Services Guide
Market Matters Financial Services Guide (FSG) is located here, and contains important information about the financial services provided by Market Matters. You must read our FSG and consider it in the context of your Personal Circumstances before acting on any advice. By accepting the terms and conditions you are acknowledging that you have read the FSG.
Provision of the Reports
Reports and other documents published on the Market Matter’s website (‘Reports’) are authored by Market Matters. The Reports represent the views of Market Matters based on technical analysis of companies, commodities and the market in general. Technical analysis focuses on interpreting charts and other data to determine what the market sentiment about a particular financial product is, or will be. Unlike fundamental analysis, it does not involve a detailed review of the company’s financial position.
The Reports contain general, as opposed to personal advice. That means they are prepared for multiple distribution without consideration of your investment objectives, financial situation and needs (‘Personal Circumstances’). Accordingly, any advice given is not a recommendation that a particular course of action is suitable for you and the advice is therefore not to be acted on as investment advice. You must assess whether or not any advice is appropriate for your Personal Circumstances before making any investment decisions. You can either make this assessment yourself, or if you require a personal recommendation, you can seek the assistance of a financial advisor.
The Reports are published by Market Matters in good faith based on the facts known to it at the time of their preparation and do not purport to contain all relevant information with respect to the financial products to which they relate. Although the Reports are based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, Market Matters does not make any representation or warranty that they are accurate, complete or up to date and Market Matters accepts no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in the Reports.
If you rely on a Report, you do so at your own risk. Any projections are estimates only and may not be realised in the future. Except to the extent that liability under any law cannot be excluded, Market Matters disclaims liability for all loss or damage arising as a result of any opinion, advice, recommendation, representation or information expressly or impliedly published in or in relation to this report notwithstanding any error or omission including negligence.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Brokerage costs have not been included in the calculation of performance. As financial products rise and fall in value, returns may be negative. Performance figures are not intended to be a forecast. Market Matters does not guarantee the performance of or returns on any investment.
Employees and/or associates of Market Matters may hold one or more of the stocks reviewed on this website.
Subscriptions and Subscription Prices
To access premium content available on the Market Matters website you must subscribe to one or more membership categories available on the website.
To subscribe to the Market Matters website you must go to the Memberships page of the website, provide the information marked as ‘Mandatory’ and select the payment option for the price quoted (at the time of your transaction). You will then receive a verification email from Market Matters indicating that your subscription and payment have been accepted and you will be able to access the premium content.
Prices published on the Market Matters website are quoted in Australian Dollars (AUD) and are inclusive of GST and/or all other duties and taxes. Market Matters has used reasonable endeavours to ensure that prices for subscription to its services are published accurately on the website but these prices are subject to change and Market Matters reserves the right to change these prices and will notify you of any increase by email (with the price increase to apply from the time the next payment is due).
Marketmatters Pty Ltd (ABN 20 137 462 536) will issue a tax invoice to paying subscribers in relation to any supply that is subject to GST in accordance with A New Tax System (Goods and Services Tax) Act 1999.
Any member is entitled to cancel their membership at any time. In the event a member does wish to cancel their subscription, cancellations must be notified in writing to:
Level 29, Chifley Tower, 2 Chifley Square, Sydney NSW 2000
or by email to: [email protected]
All cancellations of month-by-month subscriptions will be cancelled and not billed again the next month.
All cancellations within 14 days we be entitled to a full refund. Any introductory gifts, such as iPads, must be returned in their original condition before a refund will be made.
All cancellations made after 14 days of subscription commencement will not be entitled to a refund unless in the event of extenuating circumstances, at the sole discretion of Market Matters.
Subscriptions will automatically renew on the expiry date of current subscription. In these instances the subscription will be renewed at the current rate published on the Market Matters web site, using the same credit card that paid for the initial subscription, unless otherwise requested by the subscriber. A subscriber who wishes to cancel after being renewed in this way will have a “14 day cooling off period” in which they can request to discontinue and will receive a full refund for the renewal payment, this can be done in writing to:
Level 29, Chifley Tower, 2 Chifely Square Sydney 2000
or by email to: [email protected]
Market Matters has not reviewed any of the websites which link to this website or to which this website links. Market Matters is not responsible for the content of any other website or pages linked to or linking to its website. Following links to any other websites or pages shall be at the user’s own risk.
Copyright © 2013 Marketmatters Pty Ltd (ABN 20 137 462 536). No part of this website, or its content, may be reproduced in any form without the prior consent of Market Matters.
This Agreement is governed by and is to be construed in accordance with the laws of New South Wales, Australia. You agree to the non-exclusive jurisdiction of the courts of New South Wales, Australia in respect of any proceedings concerning this Agreement. This website is not available to US persons and by accepting these terms you confirm that you are not a US person.