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Firstly and very importantly a happy and healthy new year to everyone, COVID may continue to test us all but lets hope our optimism is well founded and it will soon to be in the rear view mirror, definitely some lessons to be learnt here! Aside from the pandemic MM is extremely excited about the coming year on a number of fronts from the ongoing opportunities the markets look set to present to the continued growth and evolution of MM:

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Latest Reports

Afternoon report

The Match Out: RBA holds tight, stocks rally

While they’re still saying otherwise, the RBA is looking increasingly poised to cut rates in the coming months as inflation comes back into range and labour market pressures ease. Markets are pre-empting the move,  the Aussie Dollar down (65.31c), bond yields down, and equities up as we edge closer to D-Day for Michelle Bullock et al. However, at a sector level today, Materials & Energy stocks bounced nicely and Iron Ore rallied ~5% in Asia, implying some improving confidence around the outlook for the Middle Kingdom, we’re certainly positioned for it!

The Match Out Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: China’s upbeat industrial output offers a glimmer of hope to Beijing

The big news yesterday was China’s industrial production, which came in stronger than expected, rising 7% year on year in February, beating the anticipated 5% and making it the fastest pace of growth in two years. Notably, the markets are very negative towards China; hence, any ongoing signs of improvement are likely to see a dramatic move in some related areas of the market. Even retail sales came in better than expected yesterday, printing 5.5%, above economists’ forecasts of 5.2%, with online sales up an impressive +14.4% to start the year. With fixed asset investment up 4.2%, more than the expected 3.2%, it was a rare good day for the Chinese economic outlook.

what matters today Market Matters
Afternoon report

The Match Out: Stocks in a holding pattern ahead of Central Bank meetings

A quiet start to the trading week ahead of important Central Bank meetings - the RBA is set to decide on rates tomorrow (no change expected) while the US Fed step up on Thursday, again, no change expected however the rhetoric and associated economic projections will be influential on markets. As it stands, markets are pricing on 3 cuts in the US and 1.6 cuts locally this side of Christmas, which seems on the money from MM’s perspective. i.e. markets and central banks now seem aligned.

The Match Out Market Matters
Morning report

Macro Monday: Dr Copper surges higher. Can Iron Ore mirror the move?

Copper was the shining light in an otherwise tough week for local stocks, with the industrial metal surging almost 6%, testing 12-month highs in the process. Ironically, the advance coincided with iron ore making fresh 7-month lows, with the divergence between two of Australia’s most important exports certainly garnering plenty of attention. Iron ore has slipped over 30% since early January as Beijing fails to lift hopes around the health of their construction industry, leading to loss-making steel mills buying less ore and creating stockpiles at Chinese ports.

what matters today Market Matters
Weekend report

Weekend Q&A: Copper is soaring, but the banks & iron ore miners are weighing on the ASX

The ASX endured a tough session on Friday, although the 1% recovery throughout the afternoon offered some hope for the bulls, with the “Big Four Banks” leading the bounce. For example, NAB and ANZ both reversed early steep losses of between 2.5% and 3% to end the session on their highs and in positive territory. However over the week, it was Macquarie’s downgrade of the banks and further weakness in iron ore names which weighed most on the index, which ended the tough 5-days down -2.25%.

Afternoon report

The Match Out: Early weakness entices bargain-hunting

The market was hit particularly hard early on today, down ~120 points at the 11.30am low before buyers of the dip came roaring in, cutting those losses by 2/3rds with a very strong afternoon session into an index re-weight at the close.

The Match Out Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: Do we like Macquarie’s sell call on the banks?

Yesterday, Macquarie came out with a rare call that it’s time to sell the “Big Four Banks,” and they’ve also advised clients to be underweight in everything! The crux of their view is that the current high valuation of the Australian banks isn’t justified by the fundamentals. They even doubled down on Westpac (WBC), moving from outperform to underperform; by definition, they must think their own shares are a sell. Last week, the banks hit multi-year highs, led by Commonwealth Bank (CBA), which posted all-time highs; hence, it's not hard to comprehend some kneejerk profit-taking.

what matters today Market Matters
Afternoon report

The Match Out: The Banks cop a beating, but the rest helped offset the pain

The local market started higher however it wasn’t long before the pressure coming from the Financials sector took the market into the red for the session. Macquarie moving negative on its Big 4 peers saw the space take ~35pts off the ASX200 today. The Resources sector did a lot of heavy lifting in an effort to offset the banks, it appears money was rotating through the market today rather than outright selling of the banks.

The Match Out Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: Can the Telcos find some love in 2024 with Optus on the chopping block?

Overnight, the AFR led with the story that Singtel was in advanced discussions to sell Optus, Australia’s second-largest telecommunications group, to Toronto-headquartered private equity giant Brookfield, a major deal worth around $16-18 billion. Singtel have denied the rumours, but often where this is smoke there is a fire. After over two decades of ownership, Singtel will pass the reins over to private equity, which will have to deal with regulators for Australia’s second-largest telco. It will be interesting to see how Brookfield plans to turn around Optus after its recent outage and cyber-attack issues.

what matters today Market Matters
Afternoon report

The Match Out: ASX ticks up, Retailers rally, Materials struggle.

A choppy but mildly positive session with exactly half the stocks in the ASX 200 up, while half fell, the retailers attracted some buying into recent weakness while the material stocks remained on the nose despite a recent bounce in Chinese equities- BHP is back testing the bottom of its trading range ~$42.

The Match Out Market Matters
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