HomeReportsMarket Matters 2022 Outlook Report – a potential…
Firstly and very importantly a happy and healthy new year to everyone, COVID may continue to test us all but lets hope our optimism is well founded and it will soon to be in the rear view mirror, definitely some lessons to be learnt here! Aside from the pandemic MM is extremely excited about the coming year on a number of fronts from the ongoing opportunities the markets look set to present to the continued growth and evolution of MM:
When inflation rises it takes interest rates along for the ride which flows down to multiple contraction / a drop in valuations i.e. people are prepared to pay less for a company’s potential growth / yield because they can suddenly get an improving return on their risk free funds at the bank i.e. a major tailwind for stocks has become a headwind
The US literally pumped money / stimulus into their economy after the GFC but the amount pales into insignificance compared to their extreme efforts post-COVID, never in history has the global economy experienced such phenomenal economic stimulus effectively providing “free money” which has fuelled massive M&A and buyback activity in equities
MM believes that company buybacks are close to a point of inflection which should remove an enormous tailwind for stock indices i.e. one of the largest net buyers of stocks may retreat
MM remains mildly bullish Australian equities looking for 4-6% further upside i.e. not a big call but we do anticipate reducing our risk if such a move unfolds
MM is looking for around 10% upside in copper in the coming months but we must remain mindful of how quickly some moves unfolded in 2020/21, in both directions!
The ASX finished the week sluggishly as the market took its foot off the gas with US tariffs on ~90 trading partners becoming effective yesterday. Despite the tremors, the index still managed to gain 1.7% over the period and is within striking distance of fresh all-time highs
The ASX 200 slipped 0.1% on a quiet Thursday, with the index remaining around all-time highs as the exchange where its shares are traded goes from one mess-up to the next.
The ASX 200 plateaued today, failing to push to new highs despite a solid session overnight in the US, though there was no clear push in either direction after recent strength.
The ASX200 surged another +0.8% on Wednesday, closing at a fresh all-time high, and well above the psychological 8800 for the first time. Over 75% of the main board closed higher, but the main drivers of the more than 70-point advance were the heavyweight financials and materials sectors, which combined made up almost 60% of the indexes gain.
A second day of strength for the ASX, breaking out to new highs as ‘risk on’ flows across the market. Futures were well supported overnight, even as the US market pulled back, implying a degree of overseas buying is hitting our bourse led by a reemergence of interest in the resources and energy sectors.
The ASX200 surged towards new highs on Tuesday, ending the session up +1.2%, only 6 points below its all-time high. Gains were broad-based, with over 90% of the main board advancing, led by the rate-sensitive consumer discretionary, real estate and financial stocks.
181 stocks in the ASX 200 made gains today, all sectors were higher, intra-day dips were bought, and the market made a new all-time closing high up tripped digits – a bullish day all around as we move into local reporting season. US earnings have strong; we made the point this morning that S&P 500 companies are on track to post a +9.1% lift in profits, far above analysts’ projection of 2.8% before results began, with earnings, and importantly, positive earnings revisions ultimately driving stock prices. Now it’s our turn!
The ASX200 recovered from early losses on Monday to end the session in positive territory, an impressive performance considering the Dow's more than 500-point drop on Friday night.
The ASX opened on the backfoot this morning, however that was the worst of it, with strength amongst the miners and supermarkets offsetting weakness elsewhere. US Futures edged higher, and Asia was also well supported during our time zone, moving past the weakness we saw in US economic data on Friday.
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