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Fairly valued
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 5 NOV 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Five-star price 6.55 Fair value 7.34 One-star price 8.22
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 5 NOV 2026.
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 5 NOV 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (6.55) to the one-star price (8.22).
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): AUD/NZD |
| Exchange Rate: 0.8068 |
| Price - closing or last bid | 7.13 |
| Price - 12 month high | 9.97 |
| Price - 12 month low | 4.88 |
| Pricing date | 5 NOV 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 2.08 |
| Market capitalization | 5,191.04 |
| 12 Month High price date | 6 MAR 2026 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 1 JUN 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 2.09 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | -1.79% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | 3.48% |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | 6.42% |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | 4.85% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | -25.73% |
| Price - YTD price percent change | -22.58% |
| Price % Change Month To Date | 10.03% |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.286 |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.286 |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 0.323 |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | 2.702 |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | 2.702 |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | 1.479 |
| Book value per share - most recent half-year | 1.479 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | 1.170 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent half-year | 1.170 |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | 1.081 |
| Cash per share - most recent half-year | 1.081 |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.182 |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 0.182 |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 0.146 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | 0.392 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.286 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.286 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.157 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.157 |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 0.082 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | 28.88 |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | 25.58 |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | 3.06 |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | 7.42 |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | 101.07 |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 45.29 |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | 5.87 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | 37.94 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | 18.74 |
| Net Debt, LFI | -877.73 |
| Net Debt, LFY | -760.16 |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | — |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | 2.08% |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 2.05% |
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | 59.67 |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | 1.72% |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | 2.27% |
| LT debt/equity - most recent half-year | 1.06% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent half-year | 1.38% |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | 59.67 |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | — |
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | 1,972.24 |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | 1,972.24 |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | 286.07 |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | 286.07 |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | 296.57 |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | 296.57 |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | 113.58 |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | 113.58 |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 307.86 |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 235.80 |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | 0.32 |
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | 10.52% |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | 10.52% |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 13.43% |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | 13.43% |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | 15.04% |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 15.04% |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | 12.59% |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | 14.21% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | 10.50% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | 3.03% |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | 9.38% |
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | 10.83% |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | 10.83% |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | 15.92% |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | 15.92% |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | 8.54% |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | 11.89% |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | 10.36% |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | 7.46% |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | — |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | 10.73% |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | 7.42% |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | -9.70% |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | 0.29% |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | 58.65% |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | 18.29% |
Financial forecast (AUD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | ||||||
| Estimate breakdown | ||||||||
Financials (NZD, millions)
| Period end: | JUN 22 | JUN 23 | JUN 24 | JUN 25 | JUN 26 |
| Fiscal year: | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Period length: | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months |
Announcements
| DATE | TIME | HEADING | PAGES |
| Price sensitive |
Previous investor favourite A2 Milk (A2M) has rallied toward five-year highs this week following a well-received first-half result that defied China’s declining birth rate - its most important market. An expanded product range in China drove revenue well ahead of expectations, prompting the company to upgrade its full-year guidance.
New Zealand dairy brand A2 Milk (A2M) has surged ~34% over the past six months, riding a bullish re-rating earlier this year after a standout result, with revenue beating expectations by 10%.
A2M experienced a significant re-rating in February after delivering a stellar result, with revenue surpassing expectations by 10%. Given A2M's strong execution, we now expect further market share gains in both China, Australia, and New Zealand – note that around 67% of FY24 revenue was generated from China.
A2M +19.66%: Had a strong day on the back of a very good 1H25 result, which demonstrated great execution across all aspects of the business. Revenue was 10% higher than expected driving bigger earnings beat and we’ll likely see chunky upgrades filter through on FY25 estimates.
A2M +13.31%: Impressed the market today with a slight change in their strategy, announcing a maiden dividend at their AGM. The company announced its expecting mid-high single digit revenue growth in the full year.
Auckland-based A2M has been volatile over recent years, but it’s generally impressed in 2024, advancing +49% year-to-date. However, the stock fell over 20% in August after disappointing the market with its FY24 result, but China's stimulus rekindled the market's appetite for the stock with over 60% of revenue comes from the world 2nd largest economy - the surge three weeks ago even drew a price query from the ASX.
a2 Milk Co Ltd (A2M) has surged since mid-January, helped by a solid 1st half, which beat consensus estimates, and saw first-half profits jump +16%, e.g. revenue grew 3.7% to $NZ812m while profit of $NZ85.3m was a 15% beat to expectations.
A2M +12.48%: despite a challenging China market backdrop, A2 Milk delivered a strong 1st half and beat consensus estimates, sending the stock higher today. Revenue grew 3.7% to $NZ812m while profit of $NZ85.3m was up 16%, a 15% beat to expectations.
A2M -13.56%: FY23 results out today for the milk products business were largely as expected, however, shares struggled on weaker guidance, falling to 12-month lows.
A2M enjoyed a rare return to the winner’s enclosure yesterday closing up +1.9% but it did surrender around 75% of its early morning gains following the news that its NZ-based manufacturing partner Synlait Milk had received approval from Chinese authorities to sell its China-label baby formula. Production should start later this month generating a solid boost for A2M’s earnings next FY.
MM is bullish on A2M around $9.60
MM is bullish toward A2M ~$9.00
MM is cautiously bullish on A2M
MM is cautiously bullish about A2M
MM remains cautiously bullish A2M
MM is cautiously bullish A2M
MM is cautiously bullish toward A2M
MM is neutral towards A2M, around $7
MM is cautiously bullish toward A2M ~$6
MM is neutral to bullish A2M
A2 Milk is a New Zealand licensor and marketer of fresh milk, infant formula, and other dairy products that lack the A1 beta-casein protein. The firm was founded in 2000 by Corran McLachlan, who developed a genetic test to determine which proteins a cow produces in its milk, and business partner Howard Paterson. The company has been through a tumultuous history of receivership, legal battles, and strategic shifts, but emerged in its current structure in 2006 and listed publicly in March 2013.
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